NBA games

POR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
125–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR30273830125
NO25342632117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NO
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 30 35 5 3
Deni Avdija S 35 32 1 2
Jrue Holiday S 37 17 4 12
Toumani Camara S 38 13 3 5
Donovan Clingan S 27 9 10 0
Kris Murray 22 6 7 1
Robert Williams III 17 6 6 1
Duop Reath 4 3 1 0
Jerami Grant 7 2 2 1
Sidy Cissoko 17 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derik Queen 38 26 7 4
Saddiq Bey S 35 25 6 5
Trey Murphy III S 39 22 5 5
Jeremiah Fears S 26 15 3 4
Herbert Jones S 34 11 1 3
Jordan Hawkins 9 6 2 0
Jose Alvarado 22 5 1 3
Karlo Matkovic 14 5 3 1
Micah Peavy 12 2 5 2
Kevon Looney S 8 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
2 Jrue Holiday POR
11%
3 Jeremiah Fears NO
11%
4 Deni Avdija POR
10%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Yves Missi NO
9%
7 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Kevon Looney NO
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
26%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.9 6.8 5.7
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.1 5.1 2.4
3 Jerami Grant POR 20.7 3.7 3.2
4 Jrue Holiday POR 20.6 5.5 8.6
5 Trey Murphy III NO 19.8 6.6 3.9
6 Jeremiah Fears NO 16.3 3.6 3.5
7 Toumani Camara POR 13.4 4.9 3.3
8 Saddiq Bey NO 11.9 4.1 1.5
9 Herbert Jones NO 11.5 3.9 2.6
10 Donovan Clingan POR 9.7 9.1 1.5
11 Derik Queen NO 9.5 5.9 2.0
12 Yves Missi NO 7.4 6.6 1.1
13 Jose Alvarado NO 6.9 2.7 2.3
14 Kris Murray POR 6.4 3.0 1.5
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.4 1.9 0.9
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.8 2.8 0.8
17 Micah Peavy NO 4.7 2.6 1.0
18 Duop Reath POR 4.6 1.5 0.8
19 Kevon Looney NO 4.6 4.1 1.3
20 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.4 1.9 1.3
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 3.9 0.7 0.7
22 Robert Williams III POR 3.8 3.3 0.8
23 Bryce McGowens NO 3.7 1.5 0.7
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.5 1.7 0.6
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.3 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.