NBA games

WSH @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
112–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH29253325112
HOU40412232135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home HOU
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 32 25 11 4
Kyshawn George S 36 16 7 9
Tre Johnson S 27 12 1 1
Cam Whitmore 25 11 3 1
CJ McCollum S 29 10 2 3
Marvin Bagley III 12 9 5 1
Corey Kispert 19 8 2 0
Bub Carrington 19 7 1 2
Khris Middleton S 23 7 2 3
Tristan Vukcevic 7 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 31 23 5 4
Reed Sheppard 25 21 3 3
Tari Eason 21 20 6 0
Amen Thompson S 35 18 1 8
Alperen Sengun S 28 16 13 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 30 15 8 3
Josh Okogie S 26 7 5 1
Steven Adams 17 5 8 4
Jeff Green 3 3 1 0
JD Davison 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 4-foot driving dunk (Josh Okogie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
11%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 CJ McCollum WSH
9%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
9 Tre Johnson WSH
7%
10 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.4 5.1 3.9
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.2 10.9 8.1
3 Alex Sarr WSH 21.5 8.3 4.1
4 Amen Thompson HOU 21.2 7.2 6.0
5 CJ McCollum WSH 18.1 3.4 3.9
6 Kyshawn George WSH 17.7 6.0 4.2
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.3 5.8 1.9
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.2 3.3 3.9
9 Tari Eason HOU 12.7 5.1 2.1
10 Tre Johnson WSH 11.9 3.7 1.6
11 Khris Middleton WSH 10.1 4.2 2.8
12 Josh Okogie HOU 10.0 2.6 1.9
13 Bub Carrington WSH 7.9 3.7 5.0
14 Corey Kispert WSH 7.8 2.4 1.7
15 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.8 2.2 1.0
16 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.6 4.3 1.3
17 Steven Adams HOU 7.0 8.5 1.7
18 JD Davison HOU 5.5 1.4 1.8
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.4 1.4 1.8
20 Jeff Green HOU 4.1 2.2 0.5
21 Clint Capela HOU 4.0 5.0 0.7
22 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.4 2.9 0.6
23 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.4 1.0 0.6
24 Malaki Branham WSH 3.2 1.4 0.4
25 Will Riley WSH 2.9 1.1 0.7
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.2 1.1 0.4
27 Anthony Gill WSH 1.5 1.0 0.3
28 AJ Johnson WSH 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.