NBA games

CLE @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
130–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE29372737130
MIA38312819116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIA
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 27 30 10 2
De'Andre Hunter S 28 21 6 2
Craig Porter Jr. 32 19 4 9
Lonzo Ball S 20 15 2 8
Tyrese Proctor 23 12 2 2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 18 9 6 2
Dean Wade S 26 8 3 2
Sam Merrill S 21 5 0 3
Thomas Bryant 13 4 7 0
Luke Travers 12 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 33 27 2 5
Andrew Wiggins S 33 17 9 6
Davion Mitchell S 34 16 3 4
Kel'el Ware S 28 15 13 1
Simone Fontecchio 19 13 4 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 11 3 4
Pelle Larsson S 27 9 0 4
Dru Smith 14 6 6 2
Nikola Jovic 22 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 27-foot three point shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
18%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
16%
3 De'Andre Hunter CLE
16%
4 Norman Powell MIA
15%
5 Davion Mitchell MIA
13%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
7 Pelle Larsson MIA
11%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
9 Dean Wade CLE
0%
10 Lonzo Ball CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 23.7 4.2 3.6
2 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 20.1 8.0 6.1
3 De'Andre Hunter CLE 19.4 4.8 3.3
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.2 4.9 3.4
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.9 8.5 2.3
6 Sam Merrill CLE 13.7 2.5 2.6
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.4 4.8 3.6
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.3 2.9 7.0
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.8 9.2 1.3
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 10.8 3.1 2.8
11 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.8 2.8 1.5
12 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.6 4.0 5.4
13 Dru Smith MIA 6.8 2.0 3.4
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.5 3.5 1.3
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.6 3.3 2.0
16 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 5.1 3.3 1.2
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.7 1.4 1.3
18 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.3 2.6 1.5
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.0 1.6 0.5
20 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.3 1.5 0.6
21 Luke Travers CLE 3.1 1.8 0.8
22 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.0 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.