NBA games

MEM @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
95–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2620282195
BOS34333331131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home BOS
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 23 18 2 0
Santi Aldama 24 14 6 4
Vince Williams Jr. S 25 12 5 2
Cedric Coward 26 12 6 3
Jock Landale S 24 11 6 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 26 8 4 4
GG Jackson 7 6 0 1
Jaylen Wells S 24 5 4 0
Cam Spencer 29 5 2 3
PJ Hall 7 4 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 30 24 6 9
Derrick White S 26 20 5 4
Jaylen Brown S 25 19 6 6
Luka Garza 17 14 7 1
Neemias Queta S 20 13 8 2
Josh Minott 22 9 5 4
Jordan Walsh S 18 7 6 0
Anfernee Simons 22 6 4 7
Baylor Scheierman 12 6 1 0
Ron Harper Jr. 4 6 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
17%
2 Derrick White BOS
12%
3 Payton Pritchard BOS
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
7 Jock Landale MEM
9%
8 Josh Minott BOS
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
8%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
18%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.2 5.4 5.0
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 16.8 5.8 1.9
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.8 3.9 5.4
4 Derrick White BOS 15.9 4.3 5.7
5 Cedric Coward MEM 15.3 6.3 3.3
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.0 2.8 2.2
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.6 6.4 2.7
8 Jock Landale MEM 11.5 5.6 1.8
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.0 3.7 1.5
10 Neemias Queta BOS 8.9 8.3 1.8
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 8.8 3.0 2.4
12 Josh Minott BOS 8.8 5.7 1.5
13 Cam Spencer MEM 8.5 2.5 2.9
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.4 3.2 2.5
15 Sam Hauser BOS 6.5 3.5 1.6
16 Luka Garza BOS 6.5 4.0 1.1
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.8 3.5 1.1
18 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.4 2.2 1.0
19 GG Jackson MEM 4.2 1.7 0.6
20 Chris Boucher BOS 4.2 3.0 0.5
21 John Konchar MEM 3.9 2.7 0.9
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.8 2.3 0.7
23 PJ Hall MEM 3.3 2.6 0.3
24 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.6 0.7 0.8
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.6 2.2 0.8
26 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.4 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.