NBA games

ORL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
124–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL30322933124
NY23193134107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NY
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 37 28 9 4
Desmond Bane S 34 22 6 8
Anthony Black 23 17 3 3
Jalen Suggs S 26 14 2 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 13 8 2
Goga Bitadze 16 10 3 0
Tristan da Silva 22 8 5 2
Jett Howard 5 5 0 0
Paolo Banchero S 12 4 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 16 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 31 3 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 15 12 4
Landry Shamet 27 11 3 1
Josh Hart 18 10 3 2
Miles McBride 21 9 1 1
OG Anunoby S 34 8 4 1
Mikal Bridges S 28 6 2 2
Guerschon Yabusele 5 6 0 1
Jordan Clarkson 11 5 1 1
Pacome Dadiet 2 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
14%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.7 4.0 6.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.9 8.6 5.1
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.5 6.2 4.0
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.6 11.5 3.7
5 OG Anunoby NY 18.8 5.8 3.1
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.1 4.5 5.1
7 Desmond Bane ORL 15.7 4.3 4.7
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.8 7.2 2.1
9 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.0 3.7 4.7
10 Anthony Black ORL 12.5 3.7 2.5
11 Miles McBride NY 9.5 2.6 2.5
12 Josh Hart NY 9.3 5.7 3.3
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.2 3.2 1.3
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.5 2.0 1.5
15 Landry Shamet NY 6.7 2.1 1.1
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 4.7 1.0
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.9 8.1 0.7
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.1 2.7 0.6
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.5 1.0
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.8 2.9 0.6
21 Jase Richardson ORL 3.2 0.9 1.1
22 Tyler Kolek NY 3.1 1.1 1.2
23 Noah Penda ORL 3.0 2.0 0.5
24 Tyus Jones ORL 3.0 1.3 0.9
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.0 1.5 0.6
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.9 1.5 0.6
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 3.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.