NBA games

CHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
113–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI23292734113
DET35332729124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DET
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 34 21 14 2
Kevin Huerter S 27 20 2 2
Isaac Okoro S 32 15 4 2
Ayo Dosunmu 22 12 3 2
Tre Jones S 30 11 2 5
Jevon Carter 17 11 2 3
Jalen Smith 14 9 4 0
Patrick Williams 24 7 5 1
Nikola Vucevic S 25 6 6 3
Dalen Terry 10 1 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul Reed S 31 28 13 6
Duncan Robinson S 28 23 2 1
Daniss Jenkins S 40 18 4 12
Caris LeVert 22 17 1 5
Ronald Holland II S 28 9 6 1
Javonte Green S 32 9 4 0
Tolu Smith 16 6 7 2
Bobi Klintman 14 6 6 1
Chaz Lanier 18 6 1 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 10 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Paul Reed assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
21%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Kevin Huerter CHI
9%
6 Tre Jones CHI
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
8 Ronald Holland II DET
7%
9 Javonte Green DET
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
8%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Josh Giddey CHI 23.1 9.4 8.7
2 Jalen Duren DET 20.9 12.2 2.6
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.8 9.5 3.9
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.3 3.1 2.8
5 Kevin Huerter CHI 14.9 4.5 3.2
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.7 4.9 1.6
7 Tre Jones CHI 14.0 4.2 5.4
8 Duncan Robinson DET 11.6 3.2 2.1
9 Ronald Holland II DET 9.5 3.4 2.2
10 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.0 2.9 1.8
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 8.8 1.8 2.8
12 Jalen Smith CHI 8.7 5.6 1.3
13 Patrick Williams CHI 8.5 3.1 1.6
14 Jevon Carter CHI 7.6 1.6 1.5
15 Caris LeVert DET 7.1 1.9 2.1
16 Javonte Green DET 6.8 3.6 1.6
17 Chaz Lanier DET 5.2 1.5 1.1
18 Paul Reed DET 5.0 3.6 0.8
19 Tolu Smith DET 4.3 3.8 0.6
20 Bobi Klintman DET 4.1 2.3 1.1
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 2.1 1.2
22 Julian Phillips CHI 3.3 1.6 0.5
23 Isaac Jones DET 2.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.