NBA games

MIL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
100–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27232228100
CHA35242428111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 32 25 5 6
Myles Turner S 29 21 3 2
Bobby Portis 23 14 8 1
Pete Nance 4 10 1 0
Kyle Kuzma S 30 8 3 4
Mark Sears 6 7 0 1
Cole Anthony 15 4 2 3
AJ Green S 27 3 3 2
Jericho Sims 18 2 7 2
Amir Coffey 12 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 33 20 6 6
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 27 17 9 0
Kon Knueppel S 34 16 6 1
Collin Sexton S 32 16 5 8
Tre Mann 25 13 1 3
Pat Connaughton 11 11 2 2
Moussa Diabate 23 7 13 2
Liam McNeeley 12 5 3 2
Sion James S 30 4 2 1
KJ Simpson 9 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Kalkbrenner · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ryan Rollins MIL
14%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Collin Sexton CHA
13%
4 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
12%
5 Kon Knueppel CHA
10%
6 Myles Turner MIL
10%
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
10%
8 Sion James CHA
9%
9 AJ Green MIL
9%
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
38%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 23.1 6.9 4.3
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.1 3.8 6.4
3 Collin Sexton CHA 19.1 2.9 6.2
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 17.7 6.2 3.4
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.9 4.5 1.7
6 Myles Turner MIL 12.2 6.3 2.0
7 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.8 7.4 1.1
8 Tre Mann CHA 10.8 3.4 3.4
9 AJ Green MIL 10.7 2.7 2.0
10 Cole Anthony MIL 10.7 3.5 5.1
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.2 2.3 2.2
12 Bobby Portis MIL 9.9 4.9 1.6
13 Sion James CHA 9.7 3.2 1.6
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.4 7.3 0.9
15 KJ Simpson CHA 5.6 1.7 1.9
16 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.5 2.1 1.3
17 Pete Nance MIL 3.8 1.5 0.7
18 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.6 1.9 0.6
19 Mark Sears MIL 2.8 0.6 0.4
20 Gary Harris MIL 2.7 1.2 0.9
21 Amir Coffey MIL 2.7 1.6 0.7
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 0.8 0.3
23 Jericho Sims MIL 1.7 1.4 0.4
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.7 1.0 0.4
25 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.4 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.