NBA games

DEN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
122–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN33272537122
SAC34222626108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SAC
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 33 35 15 7
Jamal Murray S 37 23 3 8
Aaron Gordon S 30 17 7 3
Bruce Brown 27 14 7 1
Christian Braun S 30 12 1 1
Jonas Valanciunas 15 10 7 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 24 6 2 1
Cameron Johnson S 22 5 2 2
Peyton Watson 18 0 3 0
Julian Strawther 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 26 19 8 4
Drew Eubanks 22 19 7 1
DeMar DeRozan S 31 18 1 2
Russell Westbrook 31 14 8 11
Malik Monk 28 12 1 2
Zach LaVine S 35 12 4 3
Precious Achiuwa S 18 6 3 3
Nique Clifford 14 5 3 2
Keon Ellis 14 3 0 0
Dennis Schroder S 21 0 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 13-foot jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
4 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
5 Christian Braun DEN
8%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
7 DeMar DeRozan SAC
8%
8 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
9 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
10 Dennis Schroder SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
46%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.5 11.3 10.4
2 Jamal Murray DEN 23.9 4.9 5.6
3 Zach LaVine SAC 22.1 3.7 3.0
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.8 4.0 3.5
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 19.8 5.4 2.2
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 16.9 11.2 3.7
7 Russell Westbrook SAC 16.8 6.0 5.7
8 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.0 4.0 6.0
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.8 5.2 3.4
10 Malik Monk SAC 11.8 2.3 2.3
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.4 2.4 1.7
12 Nique Clifford SAC 10.1 3.7 3.2
13 Cameron Johnson DEN 9.5 2.9 2.1
14 Peyton Watson DEN 8.3 4.4 2.0
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.8 4.8 1.3
16 Bruce Brown DEN 7.0 3.8 1.6
17 Keon Ellis SAC 6.0 2.0 1.1
18 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.7 3.0 0.7
19 Precious Achiuwa SAC 5.2 5.2 0.7
20 Julian Strawther DEN 5.0 2.4 0.9
21 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.5 3.2 0.7
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.2 1.5 1.4
23 Dario Saric SAC 3.6 1.3 0.4
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.4 0.7
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.5 1.6 0.8
26 Spencer Jones DEN 2.2 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.