NBA games

IND @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
128–152
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND34233437128
UTAH38324438152

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home UTAH
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 27 5 4
Andrew Nembhard S 30 25 2 7
Aaron Nesmith S 32 17 4 7
Isaiah Jackson 23 12 10 2
T.J. McConnell 11 12 1 1
Jarace Walker 22 11 1 0
Tony Bradley S 20 8 1 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 22 6 4 3
Ben Sheppard 17 4 2 0
Jay Huff 11 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 35 35 3 2
Svi Mykhailiuk S 27 20 4 4
Ace Bailey S 26 20 4 1
Brice Sensabaugh 16 16 4 1
Kyle Filipowski 20 16 7 3
Isaiah Collier 27 14 6 11
Jusuf Nurkic S 31 11 11 4
Keyonte George S 27 10 5 7
Walter Clayton Jr. 12 8 0 3
Cody Williams 19 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
10%
4 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
9%
5 Isaiah Jackson IND
9%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
7 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Jay Huff IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.6 6.4 2.6
2 Pascal Siakam IND 25.2 7.3 6.3
3 Keyonte George UTAH 24.5 4.5 7.1
4 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.5 4.2 1.7
5 Jarace Walker IND 13.3 5.4 4.0
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.5 2.2 5.8
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.9 3.1 1.8
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 8.6 2.9 1.3
9 Ben Sheppard IND 8.5 4.5 2.0
10 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 8.3 8.5 3.1
11 Isaiah Jackson IND 8.0 6.0 1.3
12 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.6 4.7 2.2
13 Ace Bailey UTAH 6.9 3.6 1.6
14 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.8 2.8 3.0
15 RayJ Dennis IND 6.4 2.3 2.5
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 6.0 5.0 1.1
17 Jay Huff IND 5.8 3.7 1.0
18 Tony Bradley IND 5.2 3.7 0.9
19 Taelon Peter IND 5.0 2.1 1.8
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.8 3.9 0.7
21 Cody Williams UTAH 4.7 1.5 0.6
22 Cody Martin IND 4.3 4.3 0.9
23 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.6 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.