NBA games

GS @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
102–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS25192830102
OKC34294419126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home OKC
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga S 24 13 3 4
Jimmy Butler III S 22 12 3 2
Pat Spencer 12 12 1 1
Stephen Curry S 20 11 1 0
Brandin Podziemski 21 10 4 1
Moses Moody 20 10 0 0
Will Richard 22 9 0 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 22 6 6 1
Quinten Post S 17 6 3 2
Buddy Hield 12 4 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 28 5 11
Chet Holmgren S 25 23 11 2
Isaiah Joe 29 18 1 1
Ajay Mitchell S 31 17 3 2
Jaylin Williams 30 12 6 5
Alex Caruso 15 8 2 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 8 7 2
Ousmane Dieng 20 5 1 0
Brooks Barnhizer 16 4 3 0
Cason Wallace S 21 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 2-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS
10%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
5 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC
9%
7 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
22%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.8 4.9 6.4
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.9 4.3 4.8
3 Ajay Mitchell OKC 19.4 4.3 4.8
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.3 5.7 4.7
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.8 8.3 2.3
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.5 7.1 2.9
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 15.3 11.4 3.5
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.7 4.5 3.4
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.6 3.3 1.5
10 Cason Wallace OKC 10.2 3.7 2.7
11 Moses Moody GS 9.9 3.4 1.5
12 Draymond Green GS 9.6 5.3 5.3
13 Will Richard GS 8.4 2.8 1.5
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.9 3.7 1.3
15 Alex Caruso OKC 6.4 2.1 1.9
16 Quinten Post GS 6.3 4.3 1.0
17 Buddy Hield GS 6.2 1.8 1.5
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.8 4.5 1.7
19 Pat Spencer GS 5.4 2.1 1.8
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.0 3.5 1.0
21 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.4 2.4 0.7
22 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.4 1.3 0.6
23 Gui Santos GS 2.9 1.7 0.5
24 Gary Payton II GS 2.9 2.2 0.7
25 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.4 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.