NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
100–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS22193623100
PHI23282031102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 24 6 5
Derrick White S 35 18 5 7
Anfernee Simons 26 17 4 5
Luka Garza 19 9 8 0
Neemias Queta S 29 8 10 2
Jordan Walsh 29 8 7 1
Hugo Gonzalez 6 5 2 0
Payton Pritchard S 31 5 3 3
Sam Hauser 21 3 7 0
Josh Minott S 8 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Justin Edwards 27 22 3 3
Tyrese Maxey S 34 21 5 9
Quentin Grimes 28 18 6 4
Andre Drummond S 33 14 13 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 31 12 7 0
Trendon Watford S 21 7 2 1
VJ Edgecombe S 35 6 3 3
Adem Bona 15 2 4 0
Jabari Walker 10 0 0 3
Jared McCain 7 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Drummond · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Andre Drummond makes 1-foot dunk (Tyrese Maxey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
16%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Derrick White BOS
10%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
6 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
9 Trendon Watford PHI
7%
10 Josh Minott BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
49%
Jumper
7%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.6 5.3 4.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.0 4.5 7.8
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 19.4 4.4 4.9
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.9 3.9 5.4
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.8 5.4 1.9
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 16.6 5.8 4.7
7 Derrick White BOS 15.2 4.0 5.2
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 14.6 2.4 2.2
9 Trendon Watford PHI 10.7 5.4 4.1
10 Neemias Queta BOS 8.8 7.9 1.7
11 Josh Minott BOS 8.6 5.8 1.6
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 3.1 1.6
13 Andre Drummond PHI 6.8 7.6 1.0
14 Luka Garza BOS 5.6 3.3 1.0
15 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.6 2.2 1.0
16 Justin Edwards PHI 4.5 2.3 1.3
17 Chris Boucher BOS 4.4 3.1 0.5
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.1 2.6 0.9
19 Jabari Walker PHI 4.1 3.2 0.5
20 Adem Bona PHI 3.5 3.6 0.6
21 Eric Gordon PHI 3.4 1.1 0.6
22 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.8 2.3 0.7
23 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 2.7 0.7 0.7
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.6 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.