NBA games

MEM @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
120–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30243927120
NY42353719133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NY
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 19 6 3
Santi Aldama 30 19 7 3
Jaylen Wells S 29 18 3 4
Ja Morant S 34 16 3 10
Vince Williams Jr. 24 14 9 6
Cedric Coward 30 11 3 5
Cam Spencer 19 11 2 4
Jock Landale S 26 8 8 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 15 4 2 0
John Konchar 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 32 5 10
Mikal Bridges S 38 22 7 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 21 13 4
OG Anunoby S 36 16 4 3
Jordan Clarkson 17 13 3 2
Landry Shamet S 21 10 1 0
Miles McBride 16 9 1 2
Josh Hart 30 8 4 8
Guerschon Yabusele 15 2 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
20%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
10%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Jock Landale MEM
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
8%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
20%
Layup
51%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.1 4.2 6.9
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.9 11.2 3.6
3 Ja Morant MEM 21.0 4.3 8.1
4 OG Anunoby NY 18.2 6.0 3.0
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.2 4.7 5.5
6 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.1 5.1 1.8
7 Cedric Coward MEM 15.7 6.0 3.1
8 Santi Aldama MEM 13.2 6.2 2.6
9 Jock Landale MEM 11.2 5.1 1.8
10 Miles McBride NY 9.7 2.8 2.8
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.5 3.6 1.4
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 9.5 2.9 3.2
13 Josh Hart NY 8.9 6.0 3.3
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.7 2.1 1.7
15 Cam Spencer MEM 8.6 2.3 2.8
16 Landry Shamet NY 7.0 2.1 1.2
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.6 2.5 2.1
18 GG Jackson MEM 5.0 1.8 0.7
19 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 4.5 2.5 0.8
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.3 2.8 0.8
21 John Konchar MEM 4.2 2.6 1.1
22 Tyler Kolek NY 3.7 1.3 1.4
23 PJ Hall MEM 3.6 2.5 0.4
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.6 1.8 0.8
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.5 1.8 0.7
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.4 3.7 0.9
27 Trey Jemison III NY 3.3 2.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.