NBA games

TOR @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
119–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR28322930119
BKN30222928109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BKN
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 33 25 5 4
Immanuel Quickley S 32 24 8 5
Scottie Barnes S 31 15 11 5
RJ Barrett S 29 13 4 6
Jakob Poeltl S 30 12 10 2
Collin Murray-Boyles 20 9 4 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 15 6 1 0
Jamal Shead 18 6 1 5
Gradey Dick 20 6 3 2
Jamison Battle 13 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 21 6 3
Nic Claxton S 35 21 8 4
Noah Clowney S 35 18 8 3
Egor Demin S 28 16 4 5
Jalen Wilson 16 9 1 0
Terance Mann S 32 9 3 4
Drake Powell 22 6 1 3
Tyson Etienne 2 3 0 0
Danny Wolf 2 2 1 0
Ben Saraf 2 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Egor Demin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Egor Demin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nic Claxton BKN
14%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
5 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
10%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
8 Terance Mann BKN
8%
9 Egor Demin BKN
7%
10 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
38%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
16%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.6 7.7 3.5
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.8 6.6 4.7
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.6 4.9 4.3
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.5 7.3 5.5
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.5 4.3 6.4
6 Nic Claxton BKN 16.2 7.7 3.7
7 Terance Mann BKN 11.1 3.1 3.4
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.4 3.0 1.2
9 Noah Clowney BKN 9.5 3.4 1.8
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.2 7.6 1.5
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.5 4.0 1.7
12 Egor Demin BKN 7.9 3.4 3.0
13 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.8 3.4 2.4
14 Gradey Dick TOR 7.0 2.1 0.8
15 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 2.0 4.8
16 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.0 1.7 1.1
17 Drake Powell BKN 5.8 1.7 1.5
18 Danny Wolf BKN 5.4 2.2 3.2
19 Ben Saraf BKN 5.4 1.6 3.5
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.5 1.7 1.1
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.4 1.2 0.5
22 Tyson Etienne BKN 2.6 0.9 0.6
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.4 2.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.