NBA games

ATL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
105–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL19332726105
LAC29232426102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home LAC
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Vit Krejci 30 28 3 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 26 20 3 4
Jalen Johnson S 35 16 10 8
Zaccharie Risacher S 31 11 5 0
Onyeka Okongwu 26 10 6 3
Luke Kennard 20 7 4 2
Dyson Daniels S 39 6 3 8
Keaton Wallace S 24 5 4 1
Mouhamed Gueye 8 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 39 35 10 11
Ivica Zubac S 30 13 12 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 11 2 2
Kris Dunn S 36 11 2 0
Kobe Brown 16 9 2 0
Brook Lopez 17 9 0 2
John Collins S 31 9 7 0
Cam Christie 18 3 3 3
Nicolas Batum 20 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
10%
4 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Keaton Wallace ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
21%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.0 7.9 4.6
2 James Harden LAC 21.3 4.8 9.1
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 16.8 6.3 2.9
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.1 10.8 2.8
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.8 3.4 1.9
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.8 8.3 2.3
7 John Collins LAC 12.8 4.8 1.6
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.6 6.2 5.3
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.9 2.9 1.3
10 Luke Kennard ATL 8.7 2.3 2.0
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.3 2.9 2.3
12 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 7.3 4.1 1.5
13 Brook Lopez LAC 7.2 3.2 0.8
14 Vit Krejci ATL 6.6 2.3 1.1
15 Asa Newell ATL 6.4 3.5 0.8
16 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.0 1.8 3.1
17 Cam Christie LAC 5.8 1.8 0.9
18 Jacob Toppin ATL 5.4 1.9 1.1
19 Jordan Miller LAC 5.4 2.5 0.7
20 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.1 2.2 1.9
21 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.8 1.4 0.6
22 Kobe Sanders LAC 4.8 1.1 0.9
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.6 2.7 1.0
24 Chris Paul LAC 3.7 1.4 3.7
25 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.6 2.9 0.6
26 N'Faly Dante ATL 3.1 3.8 0.6
27 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 2.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.