NBA games

NO @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
98–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO2219312698
PHX29353225121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home PHX
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 33 21 10 4
Jeremiah Fears S 31 15 2 1
Saddiq Bey S 29 15 7 0
Derik Queen 25 12 6 1
Karlo Matkovic 17 11 2 2
Jose Alvarado 23 8 3 4
Herbert Jones S 29 7 2 4
Micah Peavy 16 4 1 0
Kevon Looney S 16 2 6 2
Bryce McGowens 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 28 42 2 4
Devin Booker S 27 19 0 3
Dillon Brooks S 26 18 5 0
Royce O'Neale S 23 14 5 2
Collin Gillespie 13 6 1 5
Rasheer Fleming 9 5 0 0
Jordan Goodwin 23 4 5 4
Isaiah Livers 11 3 1 2
Oso Ighodaro 19 2 5 4
Ryan Dunn 24 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:28 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
3 Jeremiah Fears NO
11%
4 Mark Williams PHX
10%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
7 Yves Missi NO
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Kevon Looney NO
8%
10 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
26%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 29.1 4.6 8.1
2 Trey Murphy III NO 18.6 6.2 3.6
3 Grayson Allen PHX 17.8 3.6 5.3
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 17.6 3.3 3.2
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.6 3.6 3.6
6 Royce O'Neale PHX 13.9 5.4 3.8
7 Mark Williams PHX 13.5 10.4 1.4
8 Saddiq Bey NO 11.5 3.8 1.6
9 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.1 3.9 5.3
10 Herbert Jones NO 10.9 3.8 2.2
11 Ryan Dunn PHX 10.3 5.8 1.9
12 Derik Queen NO 8.7 5.4 2.0
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.4 2.7 2.1
14 Yves Missi NO 7.4 6.6 1.0
15 Jose Alvarado NO 6.3 2.5 2.0
16 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.0 1.7 0.9
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.2 3.4 1.4
18 Nick Richards PHX 4.6 3.6 0.8
19 Kevon Looney NO 4.5 3.6 1.3
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.4 2.8 0.7
21 Micah Peavy NO 4.4 2.3 0.9
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.1 2.3 0.5
23 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.0 1.4 0.6
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.8 1.4 0.6
25 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.7 1.5 0.5
26 Bryce McGowens NO 2.3 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.