NBA games

MIL @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
116–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27262637116
DAL31263126114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DAL
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 30 8 6
Kyle Kuzma 32 26 5 2
Myles Turner S 28 14 7 2
Ryan Rollins S 33 13 4 8
AJ Green S 27 13 5 2
Bobby Portis 27 13 7 0
Cole Anthony 17 4 5 3
Gary Trent Jr. S 27 3 2 1
Gary Harris 2 0 0 0
Amir Coffey 10 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 35 26 9 4
Brandon Williams S 33 19 6 3
P.J. Washington S 22 16 7 1
Max Christie S 30 13 5 3
Naji Marshall 25 9 5 3
Daniel Gafford S 23 7 8 3
Moussa Cisse 20 7 4 0
D'Angelo Russell 16 7 3 3
Klay Thompson 17 6 2 3
Jaden Hardy 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Max Christie makes driving layup (Daniel Gafford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 P.J. Washington DAL
13%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
3 Ryan Rollins MIL
12%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
5 Myles Turner MIL
9%
6 D'Angelo Russell DAL
9%
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
9%
8 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
9 Max Christie DAL
8%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
38%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.9 11.9 6.4
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 19.9 4.1 5.6
3 P.J. Washington DAL 17.7 8.5 3.0
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 16.1 6.8 3.4
5 Max Christie DAL 12.9 3.3 2.5
6 Cole Anthony MIL 12.6 3.8 4.5
7 D'Angelo Russell DAL 12.3 3.2 5.2
8 Myles Turner MIL 12.2 6.8 2.0
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.1 4.7 1.7
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.5 2.6 2.2
11 Naji Marshall DAL 10.6 4.2 2.2
12 AJ Green MIL 10.4 2.7 1.8
13 Bobby Portis MIL 9.2 4.7 1.5
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.5 5.0 1.0
15 Brandon Williams DAL 8.2 2.0 2.1
16 Klay Thompson DAL 7.8 2.8 1.8
17 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.2 1.7 3.0
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.5 0.7
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.1 3.0 1.0
20 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.8 4.1 0.7
21 Amir Coffey MIL 3.1 1.7 0.7
22 Mark Sears MIL 2.9 0.7 0.4
23 Jericho Sims MIL 2.3 1.7 0.5
24 Caleb Martin DAL 2.3 1.3 0.6
25 Gary Harris MIL 2.0 0.8 0.6
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 1.0 0.3
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.9 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.