NBA games

SA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
121–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA34292632121
CHI26383419117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CHI
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 36 38 12 5
De'Aaron Fox S 37 21 4 5
Stephon Castle S 32 19 5 11
Luke Kornet 20 16 7 2
Keldon Johnson 19 10 7 1
Harrison Barnes S 28 7 3 2
Devin Vassell S 21 4 4 0
Lindy Waters III 7 3 1 1
Carter Bryant 4 2 1 0
Jeremy Sochan 10 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Huerter S 33 23 5 5
Tre Jones S 33 20 7 7
Ayo Dosunmu 33 20 2 5
Matas Buzelis S 25 15 5 0
Nikola Vucevic S 29 11 8 6
Jalen Smith 21 11 12 2
Jevon Carter 8 6 1 1
Patrick Williams 25 5 2 0
Dalen Terry 2 4 0 0
Isaac Okoro S 21 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
16%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
15%
3 Stephon Castle SA
14%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
14%
5 Tre Jones CHI
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
10%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
0%
10 Lindy Waters III SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
27%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.9 11.9 3.8
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.9 5.6 8.5
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.9 9.7 3.8
4 Devin Vassell SA 15.2 3.9 2.8
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.1 3.2 2.7
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.6 4.8 1.7
7 Kevin Huerter CHI 13.2 4.1 3.3
8 Tre Jones CHI 12.8 3.9 5.0
9 Harrison Barnes SA 12.6 2.9 2.5
10 Keldon Johnson SA 11.9 5.0 1.8
11 Julian Champagnie SA 11.6 5.1 1.7
12 Luke Kornet SA 10.2 6.5 1.7
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.3 3.1 2.0
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.8 5.1 1.3
15 Patrick Williams CHI 8.5 2.9 1.9
16 Isaac Okoro CHI 8.3 2.7 1.6
17 Jevon Carter CHI 7.0 1.4 1.4
18 Lindy Waters III SA 5.4 1.5 1.1
19 Carter Bryant SA 5.0 2.2 1.0
20 David Jones Garcia SA 3.9 1.7 1.4
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.1 1.3
22 Julian Phillips CHI 3.1 1.4 0.5
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.0 1.9 1.5
24 Noa Essengue CHI 2.9 1.1 0.6
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.7 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.