NBA games

CLE @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
138–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CLE3023393610138
MIA2537392712140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 41 28 15 8
De'Andre Hunter S 35 23 4 4
Evan Mobley S 39 21 10 5
Jarrett Allen S 21 14 7 2
Sam Merrill 33 12 2 2
Darius Garland S 19 11 5 2
Dean Wade 22 9 3 0
Jaylon Tyson 31 9 9 1
Lonzo Ball 20 9 4 2
Craig Porter Jr. 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 39 33 2 2
Andrew Wiggins S 37 23 2 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 22 13 7
Kel'el Ware S 34 14 20 1
Simone Fontecchio 16 13 4 0
Davion Mitchell S 38 11 2 8
Pelle Larsson S 26 10 5 4
Nikola Jovic 26 8 8 4
Dru Smith 15 6 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
13%
3 Norman Powell MIA
12%
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE
11%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
9 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
29%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.2 4.3 5.7
2 Norman Powell MIA 23.2 4.3 3.5
3 Evan Mobley CLE 22.8 8.7 4.5
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.8 7.2 5.5
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 18.8 5.0 3.0
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 18.8 5.0 2.9
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.6 8.7 2.1
8 Sam Merrill CLE 13.6 2.4 2.5
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.8 3.9 2.1
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.1 3.1 7.1
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.0 4.5 3.1
12 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.9 2.7 1.6
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.8 7.6 1.1
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 9.5 2.8 2.3
15 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.5 3.9 5.3
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.9 3.9 1.4
17 Dru Smith MIA 6.8 2.1 3.5
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.9 3.2 2.2
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.3 1.7 1.3
20 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.4 1.8 0.6
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.3 2.7 1.5
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.7 1.8 0.7
23 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.9 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.