NBA games

POR @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
112–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR24322036112
ORL26332828115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home ORL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 29 31 3 1
Deni Avdija S 35 27 5 5
Jerami Grant 31 17 1 4
Jrue Holiday S 36 13 7 7
Toumani Camara S 34 8 5 3
Robert Williams III 14 7 4 0
Sidy Cissoko 10 4 2 1
Kris Murray 19 3 2 1
Donovan Clingan S 29 2 9 0
Duop Reath 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 28 9 3
Desmond Bane S 33 22 3 7
Franz Wagner S 36 19 9 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 19 9 5
Anthony Black S 32 8 4 2
Goga Bitadze 18 7 5 1
Jonathan Isaac 14 7 6 0
Jett Howard 19 3 2 2
Tristan da Silva 17 2 3 0
Tyus Jones 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 9-foot two point shot (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
15%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
5 Deni Avdija POR
12%
6 Toumani Camara POR
9%
7 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
10 Jerami Grant POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
47%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 25.5 6.7 5.1
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 9.2 5.0
3 Franz Wagner ORL 24.7 6.1 4.2
4 Jerami Grant POR 20.9 4.0 2.5
5 Jrue Holiday POR 20.3 5.4 7.8
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.1 5.3 2.2
7 Desmond Bane ORL 17.0 4.5 4.3
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.7 7.5 1.8
9 Anthony Black ORL 13.1 3.8 2.6
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.7 4.7 2.9
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.6 3.3 1.4
12 Donovan Clingan POR 9.7 8.7 1.4
13 Kris Murray POR 6.5 3.4 1.3
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.1 5.0 1.2
15 Duop Reath POR 4.9 1.4 0.7
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.3 1.9 1.3
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.9 2.8 0.6
18 Tyus Jones ORL 3.7 1.6 1.2
19 Jett Howard ORL 3.7 1.2 0.8
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 3.6 0.7 0.7
21 Jamal Cain ORL 3.6 1.5 0.4
22 Jase Richardson ORL 3.5 1.1 1.2
23 Robert Williams III POR 3.4 3.2 0.8
24 Noah Penda ORL 3.4 2.2 0.6
25 Yang Hansen POR 3.2 1.6 0.5
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.0 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.