NBA games

WSH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
135–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
WSH372435318135
DET3631204010137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DET
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 43 42 6 4
Cam Whitmore 29 20 2 1
Alex Sarr S 37 15 15 2
Kyshawn George S 29 14 4 6
Bub Carrington 35 11 7 5
Tre Johnson S 23 10 4 3
Marvin Bagley III 16 9 2 1
Corey Kispert 23 8 3 2
Khris Middleton S 26 6 3 2
Justin Champagnie 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 45 46 12 11
Daniss Jenkins 34 24 8 3
Jalen Duren S 40 19 14 3
Duncan Robinson S 38 13 3 2
Javonte Green S 38 11 11 3
Chaz Lanier 27 8 3 2
Paul Reed 13 8 9 0
Ronald Holland II S 24 5 1 1
Bobi Klintman 7 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
19%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
5 CJ McCollum WSH
10%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
7 Ronald Holland II DET
8%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
8%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.9 6.2 10.3
2 Jalen Duren DET 21.5 13.5 2.3
3 Alex Sarr WSH 20.9 8.5 4.0
4 Kyshawn George WSH 17.7 6.1 3.8
5 CJ McCollum WSH 14.9 3.4 3.3
6 Tre Johnson WSH 12.1 3.9 1.6
7 Duncan Robinson DET 12.1 3.2 2.0
8 Ronald Holland II DET 11.0 4.2 2.4
9 Khris Middleton WSH 10.1 4.2 2.7
10 Corey Kispert WSH 7.8 2.4 1.7
11 Bub Carrington WSH 7.8 3.7 4.4
12 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.4 2.3 0.9
13 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.3 1.8 2.8
14 Javonte Green DET 6.3 3.1 1.4
15 Marvin Bagley III WSH 6.1 4.1 1.2
16 Chaz Lanier DET 5.6 1.7 1.0
17 Paul Reed DET 5.1 3.6 0.9
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.6 3.6 0.7
19 Bobi Klintman DET 4.6 2.8 1.1
20 Tolu Smith DET 4.6 4.3 0.6
21 Malaki Branham WSH 4.0 1.8 0.6
22 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.8 1.3 0.7
23 Will Riley WSH 3.3 1.4 0.9
24 Isaac Jones DET 2.9 1.1 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.0 1.2 0.4
26 AJ Johnson WSH 1.7 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.