NBA games

LAL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
121–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL36293125121
CHA40231533111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CHA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 38 6 7
Austin Reaves S 29 24 5 7
Rui Hachimura S 36 21 3 2
Deandre Ayton S 33 14 6 0
Marcus Smart S 37 13 4 5
Jake LaRavia 25 6 1 3
Dalton Knecht 11 3 5 0
Jaxson Hayes 15 2 5 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 16 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 40 34 8 5
Kon Knueppel S 38 19 10 9
Collin Sexton S 26 13 0 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 19 9 4 0
KJ Simpson 20 8 3 4
Moussa Diabate 29 8 3 1
Sion James S 25 7 1 1
Liam McNeeley 18 7 1 0
Tre Mann 18 6 2 5
Pat Connaughton 8 0 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes alley oop dunk shot (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
6 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
9%
7 Tre Mann CHA
7%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
9 Collin Sexton CHA
7%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
14%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.8 8.6 9.3
2 Austin Reaves LAL 27.3 4.6 8.0
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.9 6.4 3.8
4 Collin Sexton CHA 18.1 2.9 6.3
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 16.9 8.3 1.7
6 Kon Knueppel CHA 16.6 5.7 2.8
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.0 4.0 1.9
8 Jake LaRavia LAL 13.0 4.8 2.9
9 Marcus Smart LAL 10.6 2.4 3.2
10 Tre Mann CHA 10.4 3.1 2.9
11 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.2 6.7 1.2
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.5 7.0 0.9
13 Sion James CHA 9.1 3.0 1.7
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.0 2.2 1.0
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.6 5.7 1.6
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.1 4.7 1.4
17 KJ Simpson CHA 5.4 1.5 1.8
18 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.3 2.1 1.4
19 Bronny James LAL 4.9 1.8 1.9
20 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.8 1.6 0.6
21 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.4 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.