NBA games

MIN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
144–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN31404033144
SAC25293033117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SAC
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 30 26 4 5
Jaden McDaniels S 26 21 5 3
Julius Randle S 26 19 6 4
Rudy Gobert S 34 19 12 1
Naz Reid 25 13 4 2
Rob Dillingham 16 11 0 3
Jaylen Clark 15 11 2 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 28 8 4 4
Mike Conley 18 6 3 3
Bones Hyland 6 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 30 26 4 2
DeMar DeRozan S 29 22 3 2
Domantas Sabonis S 30 20 13 3
Precious Achiuwa S 29 12 10 0
Nique Clifford 23 10 5 5
Drew Eubanks 13 6 1 1
Russell Westbrook 16 6 0 1
Keon Ellis 12 5 3 2
Maxime Raynaud 5 5 0 0
Dennis Schroder S 28 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
4 Dennis Schroder SAC
9%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
8 Julius Randle MIN
8%
9 Drew Eubanks SAC
7%
10 Russell Westbrook SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 26.5 7.4 6.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.6 4.6 3.3
3 Zach LaVine SAC 23.1 3.8 3.4
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.2 4.2 3.7
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.6 6.9 6.4
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.0 4.8 2.4
7 Dennis Schroder SAC 17.5 4.1 6.4
8 Domantas Sabonis SAC 16.9 11.5 3.8
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.3 3.9 3.7
10 Malik Monk SAC 13.9 2.8 2.3
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.4 9.7 1.6
12 Naz Reid MIN 11.4 5.0 1.8
13 Nique Clifford SAC 10.5 3.6 3.2
14 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.0 1.8 3.8
15 Keon Ellis SAC 7.6 2.2 1.2
16 Johnny Juzang MIN 7.2 2.4 0.7
17 Mike Conley MIN 7.1 2.4 4.0
18 Drew Eubanks SAC 6.6 3.5 0.9
19 Leonard Miller MIN 5.6 2.9 1.0
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.2 2.2 1.2
21 Bones Hyland MIN 5.2 1.7 1.8
22 Maxime Raynaud SAC 5.1 3.9 0.8
23 Precious Achiuwa SAC 4.7 4.6 0.7
24 Joan Beringer MIN 4.2 3.5 0.5
25 Dario Saric SAC 3.9 1.4 0.5
26 Devin Carter SAC 3.4 1.8 1.1
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.0 1.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.