NBA games

IND @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
83–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2120241883
GS23252739114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home GS
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 30 14 2 9
Isaiah Jackson S 21 12 6 1
Jay Huff S 22 12 11 2
Jarace Walker S 32 12 2 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 32 9 12 1
Monte Morris 20 8 2 4
Tony Bradley 16 6 6 1
RayJ Dennis 6 5 1 0
Ben Sheppard S 27 3 4 0
Cody Martin 28 2 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 30 21 9 7
Will Richard 19 15 3 1
Quinten Post S 24 14 8 2
Brandin Podziemski S 32 14 6 1
Moses Moody 23 13 3 1
Al Horford 18 12 4 1
Buddy Hield 20 8 4 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 20 5 8 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 5 4 0 0
Gui Santos 4 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quinten Post · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Quinten Post makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
5 Isaiah Jackson IND
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
8 Jarace Walker IND
9%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Moses Moody GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.6 7.2 6.1
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.5 5.2 4.4
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.4 7.2 3.7
4 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.3 4.3 1.6
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.2 4.7 3.5
6 Jarace Walker IND 12.9 5.7 3.9
7 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.6 2.2 5.0
8 Draymond Green GS 11.2 5.8 5.6
9 Moses Moody GS 11.1 3.3 1.8
10 Will Richard GS 9.4 3.1 1.7
11 Ben Sheppard IND 8.6 4.2 1.8
12 Buddy Hield GS 7.6 1.9 1.5
13 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.9 5.5 1.1
14 RayJ Dennis IND 6.1 2.4 2.5
15 Pat Spencer GS 6.1 2.5 2.2
16 Quinten Post GS 5.9 3.9 1.0
17 Al Horford GS 5.9 3.8 1.5
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.7 4.2 1.3
19 Jay Huff IND 5.6 3.2 0.9
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 5.5 4.1 1.0
21 Tony Bradley IND 5.1 3.4 0.7
22 Taelon Peter IND 4.7 2.2 1.5
23 Gary Payton II GS 3.7 2.6 0.9
24 Gui Santos GS 3.5 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.