NBA games

DET @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
111–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET37173423111
PHI32322123108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home PHI
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 41 26 4 11
Jalen Duren S 37 21 16 1
Duncan Robinson S 30 17 1 1
Caris LeVert 20 14 0 3
Ausar Thompson S 34 14 5 4
Ronald Holland II S 33 9 4 1
Javonte Green 28 6 2 2
Paul Reed 11 4 5 0
Bobi Klintman 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 33 4 7
Andre Drummond S 35 17 12 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 36 13 5 3
Quentin Grimes 30 13 5 4
Jabari Walker 18 12 5 0
VJ Edgecombe S 32 11 6 2
Trendon Watford S 25 7 3 2
Adem Bona 12 2 4 0
Eric Gordon 6 0 0 1
Jared McCain 9 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kelly Oubre Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Kelly Oubre Jr. makes dunk (Andre Drummond assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
22%
2 Jalen Duren DET
18%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
12%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Duncan Robinson DET
8%
8 Trendon Watford PHI
8%
9 Quentin Grimes PHI
0%
10 Ronald Holland II DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
42%
Jumper
16%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.4 4.5 7.7
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.2 5.0 10.0
3 Jalen Duren DET 20.1 11.0 2.0
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 19.4 4.1 5.0
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 18.4 5.5 4.8
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.1 5.0 1.8
7 Ausar Thompson DET 14.4 6.9 3.3
8 Trendon Watford PHI 10.6 5.9 4.3
9 Duncan Robinson DET 10.5 2.8 1.8
10 Ronald Holland II DET 9.8 3.7 2.5
11 Daniss Jenkins DET 7.0 1.4 2.6
12 Caris LeVert DET 6.3 1.7 2.0
13 Andre Drummond PHI 5.9 6.5 0.8
14 Javonte Green DET 5.3 2.8 1.0
15 Chaz Lanier DET 5.1 1.4 0.9
16 Justin Edwards PHI 5.1 2.4 1.4
17 Paul Reed DET 4.8 3.1 0.9
18 Bobi Klintman DET 4.7 2.7 1.0
19 Tolu Smith DET 4.1 3.8 0.5
20 Jabari Walker PHI 4.0 3.1 0.5
21 Adem Bona PHI 4.0 3.7 0.6
22 Colby Jones DET 3.5 1.7 0.7
23 Hunter Sallis PHI 2.9 1.2 0.7
24 Isaac Jones DET 2.5 0.9 0.3
25 Eric Gordon PHI 2.5 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.