NBA games

OKC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
114–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC25263429114
MEM33291820100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MEM
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 35 7 6
Chet Holmgren S 30 21 7 2
Ajay Mitchell S 32 21 6 4
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 18 13 2
Isaiah Joe 21 8 2 0
Cason Wallace S 34 6 4 1
Alex Caruso 21 5 4 2
Ousmane Dieng 7 0 1 0
Chris Youngblood 5 0 0 0
Brooks Barnhizer 7 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 17 7 2
Cedric Coward 29 13 10 4
Jaylen Wells S 23 12 1 2
Santi Aldama 30 12 9 4
Ja Morant S 34 11 3 8
Jock Landale S 28 10 5 3
Cam Spencer 20 9 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 23 9 4 3
John Konchar 9 3 3 3
Vince Williams Jr. 14 3 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes dunk (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
13%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
8 Jock Landale MEM
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
14%
Layup
53%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.8 4.9 6.4
2 Ja Morant MEM 20.9 4.5 7.8
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.6 8.7 2.4
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 19.5 4.3 4.6
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.2 5.7 1.6
6 Cedric Coward MEM 15.1 5.8 2.6
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.5 11.7 3.9
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.1 6.2 2.2
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.4 3.4 1.5
10 Cason Wallace OKC 11.1 3.9 3.1
11 Jock Landale MEM 11.0 4.9 1.6
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 9.6 3.0 3.2
13 Jaylen Wells MEM 9.5 3.8 1.4
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.2 3.9 1.4
15 Cam Spencer MEM 7.7 2.2 2.8
16 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.7 2.4 2.3
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.6 2.2 1.9
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.1 4.3 1.8
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.3 3.0 1.0
20 Chris Youngblood OKC 5.2 1.8 0.8
21 GG Jackson MEM 4.1 1.8 0.6
22 John Konchar MEM 4.0 3.1 0.9
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 3.9 2.6 0.9
24 PJ Hall MEM 3.6 2.8 0.5
25 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 3.1 2.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.