NBA games

BOS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
111107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30242433111
ORL33212627107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ORL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 34 27 5 1
Anfernee Simons 23 25 1 3
Derrick White S 36 21 3 4
Luka Garza 17 16 8 3
Neemias Queta S 26 8 6 0
Jordan Walsh 26 6 6 4
Payton Pritchard S 33 5 5 5
Hugo Gonzalez 13 3 1 1
Sam Hauser 17 0 4 0
Josh Minott S 16 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 28 6 4
Franz Wagner S 37 20 9 3
Jalen Suggs S 29 20 8 4
Tristan da Silva 23 12 5 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 12 4 1
Desmond Bane S 35 9 5 6
Anthony Black 20 4 3 0
Goga Bitadze 15 2 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 4 0 0 0
Tyus Jones 10 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
6 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
10 Josh Minott BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
26%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 28.5 5.2 4.7
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.5 9.6 4.5
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.4 5.2 4.0
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.6 3.9 5.2
5 Desmond Bane ORL 16.1 4.3 3.8
6 Derrick White BOS 15.3 4.0 4.9
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 13.6 2.8 1.9
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.8 7.5 2.0
9 Anthony Black ORL 12.8 3.6 2.9
10 Jalen Suggs ORL 11.1 3.3 4.6
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.0 2.9 1.4
12 Josh Minott BOS 9.8 5.9 1.5
13 Neemias Queta BOS 9.6 8.1 1.7
14 Sam Hauser BOS 8.4 3.0 1.6
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 5.4 1.1
16 Luka Garza BOS 5.3 3.0 0.8
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.8 2.3 0.9
18 Chris Boucher BOS 4.6 3.1 0.5
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.1 3.1 0.5
20 Tyus Jones ORL 4.1 1.6 1.3
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.6 2.4 0.7
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.5 1.2 0.8
23 Jase Richardson ORL 3.3 1.1 1.1
24 Noah Penda ORL 3.2 2.2 0.5
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.0 2.1 0.7
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.9 2.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.