NBA games

HOU @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
122–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28223240122
MIL30312430115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIL
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 31 3 7
Alperen Sengun S 40 23 11 7
Reed Sheppard 29 16 0 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 31 16 9 1
Amen Thompson S 37 14 8 5
Steven Adams 22 12 6 1
Tari Eason 19 6 8 0
Clint Capela 7 4 4 0
Josh Okogie S 17 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 37 8 3
Ryan Rollins S 30 19 2 5
Myles Turner S 34 13 6 1
Cole Anthony 18 12 5 6
Kyle Kuzma 30 11 1 1
Bobby Portis 24 11 1 4
Gary Trent Jr. S 29 9 2 1
AJ Green S 26 3 1 4
Amir Coffey 14 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Trent Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
18%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
6 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
7 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
8%
8 Myles Turner MIL
8%
9 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
4%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.7 11.8 6.1
2 Kevin Durant HOU 23.7 5.1 3.0
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.8 9.7 8.0
4 Amen Thompson HOU 20.6 6.8 5.5
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.0 3.7 5.5
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.4 5.1 1.7
7 Tari Eason HOU 12.7 4.6 2.3
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.5 3.3 3.7
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.5 5.0 1.7
10 Myles Turner MIL 12.1 6.3 2.0
11 Cole Anthony MIL 12.0 3.3 4.8
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.4 2.3 2.2
13 Josh Okogie HOU 11.3 2.9 1.9
14 AJ Green MIL 10.2 2.8 1.6
15 Bobby Portis MIL 8.9 5.5 1.4
16 Steven Adams HOU 6.7 8.1 1.6
17 JD Davison HOU 6.2 1.7 1.9
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.1 1.7 1.9
19 Clint Capela HOU 4.7 5.1 0.7
20 Jeff Green HOU 4.7 2.5 0.6
21 Amir Coffey MIL 2.9 1.5 0.8
22 Mark Sears MIL 2.7 0.7 0.4
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.4 1.2 0.5
24 Jericho Sims MIL 2.4 1.9 0.6
25 Gary Harris MIL 1.8 0.8 0.7
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.7 0.8 0.3
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.