NBA games

PHX @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
114–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX35252529114
LAC29173423103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home LAC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 21 10 9
Mark Williams S 29 19 6 0
Dillon Brooks S 28 16 2 3
Grayson Allen S 31 14 0 3
Collin Gillespie 27 13 6 4
Royce O'Neale 29 12 7 5
Jordan Goodwin 14 7 1 2
Ryan Dunn 20 6 4 1
Nick Richards 15 4 5 0
Jalen Green S 7 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 35 21 15 4
John Collins 28 19 4 2
James Harden S 41 13 0 13
Bradley Beal S 20 12 0 3
Nicolas Batum 25 9 3 0
Cam Christie 18 8 3 0
Brook Lopez 13 8 0 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 7 0 1
Kris Dunn S 33 6 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
11%
4 James Harden LAC
10%
5 Mark Williams PHX
10%
6 Bradley Beal LAC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
61%
Jumper
21%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.5 4.4 7.7
2 James Harden LAC 20.5 4.6 8.8
3 Grayson Allen PHX 17.1 3.9 5.1
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 14.8 3.0 2.6
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.8 9.4 2.7
6 Royce O'Neale PHX 12.8 5.1 3.5
7 John Collins LAC 12.7 4.8 1.5
8 Mark Williams PHX 12.0 10.1 1.3
9 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.3 3.5 5.1
10 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.9 5.7 1.8
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.6 2.9 1.3
12 Bradley Beal LAC 8.9 2.0 1.5
13 Brook Lopez LAC 7.6 3.4 0.9
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.5 2.7 2.2
15 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.0 2.6 1.7
16 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 5.9 2.5 2.1
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.8 3.5 1.4
18 Cam Christie LAC 5.7 1.7 1.0
19 Kobe Sanders LAC 4.8 1.1 0.8
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.6 2.6 0.6
21 Chris Paul LAC 4.6 1.8 3.9
22 Nick Richards PHX 4.5 3.2 0.7
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 2.5 1.0
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 3.5 1.7 0.7
25 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.4 1.9 0.6
26 Kobe Brown LAC 3.4 2.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.