NBA games

IND @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
100–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND18293518100
DEN31253922117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DEN
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Nesmith S 26 25 1 0
Andrew Nembhard S 33 22 0 6
Pascal Siakam S 33 14 6 5
Jarace Walker S 22 8 5 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 19 7 5 1
Tony Bradley 16 6 5 3
Ben Sheppard 23 5 2 0
Isaiah Jackson S 19 4 6 1
Jay Huff 15 4 6 1
Monte Morris 15 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 32 32 14 14
Tim Hardaway Jr. 24 17 3 4
Peyton Watson S 27 16 7 1
Cameron Johnson S 27 12 2 4
Julian Strawther 22 12 6 2
Christian Braun S 27 8 5 2
Bruce Brown 24 6 7 0
Jonas Valanciunas 14 6 5 3
Spencer Jones 20 6 1 2
Jalen Pickett S 18 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Jackson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Isaiah Jackson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
16%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Isaiah Jackson IND
12%
4 Christian Braun DEN
11%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
7 Cameron Johnson DEN
10%
8 Jarace Walker IND
9%
9 Ben Sheppard IND
8%
10 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
34%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.1 12.3 11.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.8 6.8 5.5
3 Christian Braun DEN 13.1 4.9 3.5
4 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.9 4.1 1.6
5 Jarace Walker IND 12.4 5.7 4.1
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.6 2.5 1.4
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 9.3 3.2 1.9
8 Ben Sheppard IND 8.5 4.4 1.9
9 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.4 4.7 1.2
10 Peyton Watson DEN 8.2 4.2 2.0
11 Bruce Brown DEN 7.2 3.7 1.8
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 7.0 1.5 4.0
13 RayJ Dennis IND 6.2 2.2 2.6
14 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.0 4.7 1.0
15 Julian Strawther DEN 5.1 2.5 0.8
16 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.9 1.8 1.5
17 Taelon Peter IND 4.8 2.2 1.7
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 4.6 3.8 0.8
19 Jay Huff IND 4.6 2.6 0.7
20 Tony Bradley IND 3.8 3.1 0.5
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.4 1.7 0.7
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 2.0 0.8
23 Spencer Jones DEN 2.6 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.