NBA games

POR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
131–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR30353234131
MIA27452836136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 37 33 11 8
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 21 9 1
Jrue Holiday S 35 18 9 13
Jerami Grant 22 18 3 4
Donovan Clingan S 21 13 7 0
Toumani Camara S 39 13 7 1
Kris Murray 22 6 3 1
Duop Reath 12 6 3 0
Sidy Cissoko 17 3 2 0
Robert Williams III 7 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jovic 31 29 9 6
Norman Powell S 30 22 2 3
Pelle Larsson S 27 16 1 5
Andrew Wiggins S 33 15 3 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 29 14 12 7
Dru Smith 22 13 5 6
Davion Mitchell S 26 11 2 8
Kel'el Ware S 23 9 12 1
Simone Fontecchio 18 7 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
12%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
12%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
4 Norman Powell MIA
11%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
10%
6 Toumani Camara POR
9%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
9%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
10 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
34%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 24.2 6.6 4.7
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.8 4.3 3.3
3 Jerami Grant POR 20.6 4.4 2.5
4 Jrue Holiday POR 20.4 5.0 7.6
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.0 4.8 2.5
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.0 4.9 3.3
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.2 6.3 5.1
8 Toumani Camara POR 12.7 4.6 3.1
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.3 7.9 1.1
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.2 3.0 6.3
11 Simone Fontecchio MIA 10.0 2.8 1.6
12 Donovan Clingan POR 9.9 9.2 1.6
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.0 3.7 2.7
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.4 2.6 1.9
15 Kris Murray POR 6.7 3.4 1.4
16 Dru Smith MIA 6.5 2.0 3.2
17 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.2 3.0 1.8
18 Duop Reath POR 4.9 1.5 0.8
19 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.3 1.8 1.6
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 3.8 0.8 0.7
21 Robert Williams III POR 3.8 3.6 0.9
22 Yang Hansen POR 3.4 1.7 0.6
23 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.7 0.4
24 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.1 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.