NBA games

CHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
122–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29432624122
CLE32244032128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CLE
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaac Okoro S 33 19 4 3
Jalen Smith 19 18 11 4
Tre Jones S 30 17 6 4
Kevin Huerter 29 15 3 3
Josh Giddey S 33 15 9 6
Ayo Dosunmu 23 14 3 1
Patrick Williams 23 11 1 2
Nikola Vucevic S 29 9 5 4
Matas Buzelis S 18 4 4 0
Julian Phillips 4 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter S 30 29 4 2
Donovan Mitchell S 35 29 6 6
Evan Mobley S 34 24 8 5
Jaylon Tyson S 31 17 7 3
Jarrett Allen S 25 11 3 2
Sam Merrill 28 8 2 8
Tyrese Proctor 13 6 2 1
Lonzo Ball 22 2 4 4
Dean Wade 19 2 3 0
Craig Porter Jr. 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes 12-foot jumper (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
12%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE
11%
7 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
8 Tre Jones CHI
9%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
18%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.2 4.0 5.7
2 Josh Giddey CHI 24.1 9.4 9.2
3 Evan Mobley CLE 20.6 8.2 4.4
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.1 10.2 3.8
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 18.4 4.8 3.1
6 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.0 4.9 1.7
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.3 3.4 2.6
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.2 7.8 2.0
9 Sam Merrill CLE 13.1 2.2 2.0
10 Tre Jones CHI 12.8 4.0 5.1
11 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.5 4.3 2.9
12 Jaylon Tyson CLE 10.3 3.4 1.9
13 Patrick Williams CHI 8.9 3.6 2.1
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.0 4.3 1.0
15 Jevon Carter CHI 7.6 1.6 1.4
16 Isaac Okoro CHI 6.9 2.7 1.5
17 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.8 3.3 5.0
18 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 3.7 1.5
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.9 1.6 1.7
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.8 3.3 2.2
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.9 2.0 0.7
22 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.2 2.0 0.8
23 Luke Travers CLE 3.9 2.2 1.0
24 Dalen Terry CHI 3.8 2.4 1.6
25 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 1.6 0.5
26 Noa Essengue CHI 3.1 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.