NBA games

LAL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
102–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29251830102
ATL37313024122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home ATL
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 27 22 5 11
Dalton Knecht 25 14 4 1
Jake LaRavia S 23 13 5 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 28 12 18 2
Deandre Ayton S 20 11 5 0
Bronny James 18 9 2 2
Rui Hachimura S 23 8 2 0
Marcus Smart S 21 5 0 2
Jaxson Hayes 17 4 3 0
Nick Smith Jr. 23 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mouhamed Gueye S 34 21 7 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 19 1 4
Asa Newell 27 17 5 0
Vit Krejci 24 17 3 1
Keaton Wallace S 36 14 2 7
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 12 8 4
Dyson Daniels S 36 10 8 13
Caleb Houstan 19 8 2 1
Jacob Toppin 3 4 1 0
N'Faly Dante 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes driving layup (Keaton Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
15%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
14%
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
13%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
12%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
10%
7 Luka Doncic LAL
9%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
9 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
10 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
17%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.5 9.7 9.2
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.4 7.8 4.6
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.7 3.4 3.8
4 Rui Hachimura LAL 17.5 4.1 2.1
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 16.9 9.8 1.6
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.8 3.5 1.7
7 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.5 4.5 2.8
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.5 7.8 2.0
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.6 5.9 4.1
10 Marcus Smart LAL 11.1 2.7 3.3
11 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 7.1 2.0 1.8
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.6 2.7 1.3
13 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.5 5.0 1.6
14 Vit Krejci ATL 6.0 2.2 0.9
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.9 4.9 1.5
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.9 3.8 1.1
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.5 1.8 2.7
18 Jacob Toppin ATL 5.1 1.3 1.1
19 Bronny James LAL 4.9 2.2 1.8
20 Asa Newell ATL 4.8 3.0 0.5
21 Caleb Houstan ATL 3.6 1.0 0.4
22 N'Faly Dante ATL 2.0 4.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.