NBA games

TOR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
120–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR43203423120
PHI33353329130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHI
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 34 22 3 6
Immanuel Quickley S 36 22 6 6
Brandon Ingram S 37 21 8 5
Scottie Barnes S 32 18 5 4
Collin Murray-Boyles 22 12 7 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 10 3 2
Jamal Shead 24 9 3 5
Gradey Dick 12 3 1 0
Ja'Kobe Walter 11 3 0 0
Ochai Agbaji S 15 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 43 31 4 7
Joel Embiid S 26 29 6 4
Trendon Watford S 37 20 17 10
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 19 4 1
Quentin Grimes 28 13 2 2
VJ Edgecombe S 36 11 7 4
Andre Drummond 16 4 8 1
Justin Edwards 7 3 2 1
Adem Bona 6 0 2 0
Jabari Walker 5 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 12-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
9 Jabari Walker PHI
7%
10 Adem Bona PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
39%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.1 4.7 7.7
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.3 6.2 4.5
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.2 7.2 5.2
4 RJ Barrett TOR 22.7 5.1 4.1
5 Joel Embiid PHI 20.7 6.1 4.5
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 20.7 4.5 5.5
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 19.6 5.2 5.1
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.5 5.1 2.0
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.0 4.1 6.5
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.7 3.7 1.9
11 Trendon Watford PHI 8.6 3.7 3.5
12 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.9 3.6 1.8
13 Gradey Dick TOR 7.8 2.4 0.8
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.3 1.8 4.6
15 Andre Drummond PHI 5.8 6.8 0.9
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.1 2.1 1.5
17 Justin Edwards PHI 5.0 2.5 1.4
18 Jamison Battle TOR 4.9 1.6 0.7
19 Jabari Walker PHI 4.2 3.3 0.6
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.1 4.0 0.7
21 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.7 2.1 0.8
22 Eric Gordon PHI 2.8 0.6 0.4
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.4 2.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.