NBA games

DAL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
111–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL35222529111
WSH24293319105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home WSH
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall 31 30 8 2
Brandon Williams 26 14 2 6
P.J. Washington S 37 14 9 5
Max Christie S 31 12 7 2
Cooper Flagg S 34 12 7 6
Jaden Hardy 14 8 1 0
Daniel Gafford S 19 8 5 0
D'Angelo Russell S 17 6 2 1
Moussa Cisse 19 5 9 1
Dwight Powell 6 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 33 25 6 2
Cam Whitmore 29 19 3 0
Alex Sarr S 31 17 6 5
Kyshawn George S 29 10 2 3
Marvin Bagley III 17 10 5 1
Bub Carrington 28 9 3 2
Tre Johnson S 26 9 9 0
Corey Kispert 24 4 1 2
Malaki Branham 10 2 4 2
Jamir Watkins 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 P.J. Washington DAL
13%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
13%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 D'Angelo Russell DAL
9%
7 Tre Johnson WSH
9%
8 CJ McCollum WSH
8%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
10 Max Christie DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alex Sarr WSH 20.6 8.4 3.9
2 P.J. Washington DAL 18.4 8.3 3.3
3 Kyshawn George WSH 18.3 6.1 3.8
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 16.4 6.5 3.3
5 CJ McCollum WSH 13.9 3.3 3.4
6 Max Christie DAL 13.1 3.0 2.6
7 D'Angelo Russell DAL 12.8 3.6 5.5
8 Tre Johnson WSH 12.3 3.9 1.8
9 Naji Marshall DAL 9.4 4.0 2.4
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.1 5.4 1.2
11 Corey Kispert WSH 9.0 2.9 1.8
12 Bub Carrington WSH 7.6 3.8 4.4
13 Brandon Williams DAL 7.4 2.2 1.7
14 Marvin Bagley III WSH 6.7 4.4 1.2
15 Cam Whitmore WSH 6.6 2.5 1.1
16 Ryan Nembhard DAL 5.9 2.1 3.3
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.6 2.0 1.0
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.2 3.6 0.7
19 Jamir Watkins WSH 5.2 3.8 0.7
20 Dwight Powell DAL 5.0 3.7 1.1
21 Malaki Branham WSH 4.9 1.7 0.6
22 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.9 1.8 0.9
23 Will Riley WSH 4.4 1.9 1.0
24 Moussa Cisse DAL 4.0 4.1 0.7
25 Caleb Martin DAL 3.3 1.9 0.7
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 1.8 0.5
27 AJ Johnson WSH 2.6 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.