NBA games

LAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
102–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC27242328102
PHX31174027115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home PHX
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 27 23 11 2
Cam Christie 25 17 2 3
John Collins 23 13 4 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 28 12 4 5
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 10 1 0
Kris Dunn S 24 9 2 6
Brook Lopez 18 6 3 0
Bradley Beal S 20 5 1 1
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 3 4 1 0
Chris Paul 10 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 23 29 3 3
Devin Booker S 37 24 6 7
Grayson Allen S 36 18 3 4
Royce O'Neale S 28 17 4 2
Mark Williams S 28 13 10 0
Ryan Dunn 25 10 5 3
Nick Richards 11 3 3 0
Collin Gillespie 25 1 5 7
Oso Ighodaro 12 0 3 1
Nigel Hayes-Davis 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Mark Williams makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
11%
4 Bradley Beal LAC
10%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
6 Ryan Dunn PHX
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
9 Nicolas Batum LAC
8%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
12%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.7 4.3 7.6
2 Grayson Allen PHX 16.3 3.8 4.9
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.9 9.4 2.6
4 John Collins LAC 12.2 4.8 1.4
5 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.8 5.0 3.7
6 Mark Williams PHX 11.7 10.1 1.4
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.1 3.8 4.6
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.3 3.1 1.3
9 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.7 5.7 1.6
10 Bradley Beal LAC 9.3 2.1 1.5
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.0 2.8 2.0
12 Brook Lopez LAC 7.8 3.4 0.8
13 Kris Dunn LAC 6.8 2.7 1.8
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.4 3.7 1.5
15 Chris Paul LAC 5.5 2.3 4.1
16 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.9 2.3 1.7
17 Cam Christie LAC 4.9 1.7 0.8
18 Nick Richards PHX 4.8 3.3 0.7
19 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.5 3.5 0.8
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.3 2.7 1.0
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.3 2.5 0.5
22 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 4.1 1.8 0.8
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.6 2.7 0.9
24 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 3.1 1.6 0.5
25 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.6 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.