NBA games

GS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
116121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS32302331116
SAC25323529121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SAC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Will Richard S 35 30 7 3
Moses Moody S 39 28 3 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 36 24 9 3
Brandin Podziemski S 31 14 9 9
Buddy Hield 14 9 1 2
Pat Spencer 17 6 1 1
Gary Payton II 11 3 2 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 9 2 0 1
Quinten Post S 16 0 4 1
Al Horford 27 0 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 36 25 2 2
Russell Westbrook S 35 23 16 10
Malik Monk 25 21 4 2
Dennis Schroder S 32 18 7 7
Nique Clifford S 33 12 3 3
Drew Eubanks S 32 12 6 0
Maxime Raynaud 15 6 3 0
Precious Achiuwa 9 4 3 0
Devin Carter 5 0 1 1
Keon Ellis 17 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · Layup (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Moses Moody makes driving layup (Jonathan Kuminga assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
23%
2 Dennis Schroder SAC
19%
3 Russell Westbrook SAC
16%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
16%
5 Dylan Cardwell SAC
14%
6 Quinten Post GS
10%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
0%
8 Moses Moody GS
0%
9 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
0%
10 Gui Santos GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.8 4.3 3.5
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.9 6.1 3.9
3 Russell Westbrook SAC 16.3 5.9 5.1
4 Dennis Schroder SAC 15.6 3.7 5.3
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.3 3.8 3.0
6 Malik Monk SAC 12.0 2.2 2.0
7 Nique Clifford SAC 10.4 3.8 3.1
8 Moses Moody GS 9.8 3.0 1.6
9 Buddy Hield GS 7.9 2.3 1.7
10 Keon Ellis SAC 7.4 1.8 1.1
11 Will Richard GS 6.4 2.1 1.4
12 Quinten Post GS 6.2 3.8 1.1
13 Al Horford GS 5.7 3.2 1.3
14 Pat Spencer GS 5.7 2.2 2.0
15 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.5 3.1 0.9
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 3.8 1.3
17 Gui Santos GS 3.8 1.9 0.8
18 Gary Payton II GS 3.7 2.0 0.5
19 Dario Saric SAC 3.7 1.4 0.4
20 Devin Carter SAC 3.5 1.6 1.1
21 Precious Achiuwa SAC 3.3 4.0 0.4
22 Maxime Raynaud SAC 3.3 2.8 0.6
23 Dylan Cardwell SAC 2.7 3.2 0.3
24 Jackson Rowe GS 2.3 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.