NBA games

OKC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
119–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC41242133119
POR21362440121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home POR
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 35 9 4
Aaron Wiggins S 27 27 2 2
Ajay Mitchell S 31 21 4 3
Isaiah Joe 26 14 0 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 10 11 3
Cason Wallace S 36 5 8 5
Ousmane Dieng 20 4 6 1
Jaylin Williams 21 3 9 4
Branden Carlson 8 0 1 0
Brooks Barnhizer 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 37 26 10 9
Jrue Holiday S 35 22 6 3
Jerami Grant 34 20 5 5
Shaedon Sharpe S 23 18 6 1
Toumani Camara S 37 16 5 2
Duop Reath 20 12 0 2
Donovan Clingan S 25 7 8 0
Robert Williams III 4 0 3 0
Kris Murray 18 0 3 2
Sidy Cissoko 8 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
28%
2 Jrue Holiday POR
10%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
4 Deni Avdija POR
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Toumani Camara POR
8%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
6%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.7 5.3 6.5
2 Deni Avdija POR 21.7 6.0 3.9
3 Jerami Grant POR 19.2 4.3 2.0
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 18.2 4.1 3.7
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.6 4.6 2.1
6 Jrue Holiday POR 17.4 4.7 7.0
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.8 4.0 2.7
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.9 9.9 3.0
9 Toumani Camara POR 11.8 4.5 3.0
10 Cason Wallace OKC 10.8 3.4 3.3
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.5 3.6 1.4
12 Donovan Clingan POR 8.9 9.0 1.5
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.6 4.1 1.5
14 Kris Murray POR 7.0 3.4 1.2
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.1 4.5 1.7
16 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.9 2.9 1.5
17 Chris Youngblood OKC 5.2 1.8 0.8
18 Branden Carlson OKC 5.0 2.7 0.6
19 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 4.9 3.3 0.9
20 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.0 1.6 1.6
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 3.4 0.8 0.6
22 Yang Hansen POR 3.0 1.9 0.4
23 Duop Reath POR 2.7 1.0 0.3
24 Rayan Rupert POR 2.0 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.