NBA games

SA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
116–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA29303720116
LAL26342830118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAL
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 19 8 3
Stephon Castle S 37 16 5 8
Jeremy Sochan 23 16 2 0
Devin Vassell S 37 15 3 4
Julian Champagnie S 33 14 7 0
Harrison Barnes S 28 14 6 3
Keldon Johnson 24 12 1 1
Lindy Waters III 14 6 1 0
Kelly Olynyk 9 4 4 3
Jordan McLaughlin 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 42 35 9 13
Deandre Ayton S 33 22 10 0
Marcus Smart S 34 17 5 5
Rui Hachimura S 35 15 2 0
Jaxson Hayes 15 9 4 1
Jake LaRavia S 38 8 6 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 17 5 0 2
Dalton Knecht 16 3 1 1
Nick Smith Jr. 7 2 0 0
Bronny James 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
2 Stephon Castle SA
11%
3 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
4 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
8 Dalton Knecht LAL
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
35%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
28%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 34.5 9.9 9.0
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.4 11.7 3.8
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.6 5.4 6.6
4 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.9 4.0 2.0
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 15.4 8.6 1.9
6 Devin Vassell SA 14.1 4.3 2.9
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.6 4.6 1.5
8 Jake LaRavia LAL 11.6 4.6 2.8
9 Marcus Smart LAL 10.2 2.1 2.9
10 Julian Champagnie SA 9.9 4.1 1.7
11 Harrison Barnes SA 9.6 2.4 2.6
12 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 7.4 1.7 1.7
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.5 2.4 1.3
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.8 4.6 1.5
15 Carter Bryant SA 5.4 2.1 1.0
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.2 5.0 1.5
17 Lindy Waters III SA 4.9 1.4 1.1
18 Bronny James LAL 4.9 1.9 1.9
19 David Jones Garcia SA 4.4 2.0 1.7
20 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.4 1.0 1.5
21 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.1 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.