NBA games

MIA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
112–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA33272626112
DEN36323321122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DEN
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 31 23 2 0
Andrew Wiggins S 32 22 4 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 21 3 2
Kel'el Ware 27 13 13 0
Davion Mitchell S 31 10 3 9
Pelle Larsson S 24 6 3 3
Dru Smith 17 5 2 2
Nikola Jovic 20 5 3 3
Simone Fontecchio 16 5 2 2
Bam Adebayo S 8 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 33 15 16
Aaron Gordon S 31 24 6 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 24 18 3 0
Jamal Murray S 34 14 8 3
Christian Braun S 35 11 8 7
Cameron Johnson S 23 9 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas 11 6 6 0
Bruce Brown 28 5 3 2
Peyton Watson 18 2 10 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 24-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
3 Norman Powell MIA
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
11%
7 Christian Braun DEN
8%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
10 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 23.6 12.0 9.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.9 4.5 5.1
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.7 8.0 3.5
4 Norman Powell MIA 20.1 4.2 3.3
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.8 5.6 2.3
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 15.7 5.1 4.2
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 13.9 4.4 2.1
8 Christian Braun DEN 13.2 4.1 2.7
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.9 7.6 1.1
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 10.1 3.3 1.7
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.9 2.6 5.2
12 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.2 2.9 1.4
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 8.7 2.1 1.4
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.4 3.6 2.6
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.2 5.2 1.3
16 Peyton Watson DEN 8.0 3.8 2.1
17 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.5 2.2 2.0
18 Bruce Brown DEN 6.8 3.5 1.8
19 Dru Smith MIA 6.0 1.8 2.6
20 Julian Strawther DEN 5.4 2.3 0.8
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 2.3 1.5
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.0 1.1 1.1
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.1 0.4
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.3 1.3 0.6
25 Spencer Jones DEN 1.6 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.