NBA games

NO @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
10199
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO29232623101
DAL1930282299

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DAL
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Saddiq Bey S 30 22 9 1
Jeremiah Fears S 25 13 5 3
Jose Alvarado 23 13 8 2
Herbert Jones S 35 12 5 2
Trey Murphy III S 38 11 9 5
Derik Queen 26 11 7 2
Jordan Hawkins 20 9 2 1
Kevon Looney S 15 8 6 2
Karlo Matkovic 10 2 2 0
Micah Peavy 18 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 35 20 9 2
Daniel Gafford S 25 15 8 0
P.J. Washington S 38 15 11 1
Max Christie S 27 12 3 1
Klay Thompson 21 11 4 3
Brandon Williams 19 10 1 3
D'Angelo Russell S 21 9 0 3
Naji Marshall 26 7 5 5
Dwight Powell 10 0 1 0
Jaden Hardy 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Saddiq Bey · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:44 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes 11-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 P.J. Washington DAL
16%
2 Jeremiah Fears NO
14%
3 Klay Thompson DAL
13%
4 Cooper Flagg DAL
13%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
6 Kevon Looney NO
11%
7 Herbert Jones NO
10%
8 Max Christie DAL
10%
9 Saddiq Bey NO
0%
10 Karlo Matkovic NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
27%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 P.J. Washington DAL 17.0 7.4 3.6
2 Trey Murphy III NO 16.1 5.4 2.8
3 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.3 3.8 3.6
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 14.8 5.8 3.3
5 D'Angelo Russell DAL 12.1 3.4 5.4
6 Max Christie DAL 11.4 2.6 2.5
7 Herbert Jones NO 10.4 3.8 2.0
8 Saddiq Bey NO 10.4 3.9 1.5
9 Naji Marshall DAL 9.4 3.2 2.1
10 Klay Thompson DAL 8.5 2.8 1.6
11 Derik Queen NO 7.8 5.7 1.3
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.7 2.2 0.9
13 Brandon Williams DAL 6.0 1.9 1.1
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.0 1.8 1.1
15 Jose Alvarado NO 5.9 2.3 1.8
16 Dwight Powell DAL 5.4 3.7 1.1
17 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.7 2.9 0.7
18 Micah Peavy NO 4.4 2.1 1.1
19 Kevon Looney NO 4.3 3.4 1.6
20 Bryce McGowens NO 3.2 1.3 0.6
21 Caleb Martin DAL 3.1 1.3 0.8
22 Moussa Cisse DAL 3.1 3.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.