NBA games

HOU @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
124–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU34263430124
MEM22292929109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MEM
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 39 28 10 7
Alperen Sengun S 35 20 16 7
Jabari Smith Jr. S 36 16 4 2
Tari Eason 32 16 5 1
Josh Okogie S 24 13 3 3
Reed Sheppard 17 12 1 1
Kevin Durant S 34 11 4 5
Clint Capela 16 6 10 2
Jae'Sean Tate 2 2 0 0
JD Davison 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Spencer 19 19 2 2
Ja Morant S 34 17 5 8
Santi Aldama 26 16 4 1
Jock Landale S 21 11 3 1
Vince Williams Jr. 15 10 4 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 9 6 1
Jaylen Wells S 20 8 3 1
Cedric Coward 29 7 9 4
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 24 4 3 2
Charles Bassey 15 4 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
14%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Jock Landale MEM
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
7%
10 Josh Okogie HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
12%
Layup
59%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 24.0 5.5 2.9
2 Ja Morant MEM 23.5 4.2 7.6
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.9 8.6 7.9
4 Amen Thompson HOU 20.7 6.2 5.7
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.2 5.2 2.0
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.5 5.1 1.5
7 Cedric Coward MEM 14.8 4.5 2.8
8 Tari Eason HOU 12.8 4.8 2.2
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.7 3.8 3.6
10 Jock Landale MEM 11.4 4.8 1.5
11 Santi Aldama MEM 11.0 6.2 2.2
12 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.8 3.5 1.6
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 10.5 2.9 3.4
14 Josh Okogie HOU 9.4 2.9 1.6
15 Cam Spencer MEM 7.8 2.0 3.5
16 Javon Small MEM 7.8 1.8 4.7
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.7 1.9 2.5
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 7.6 2.1 2.2
19 JD Davison HOU 7.3 1.7 2.1
20 Clint Capela HOU 5.1 5.0 0.6
21 Charles Bassey MEM 5.1 8.5 0.8
22 Jeff Green HOU 4.7 2.6 0.5
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 4.6 2.6 1.0
24 GG Jackson MEM 4.0 1.5 0.4
25 John Konchar MEM 3.8 2.7 1.0
26 PJ Hall MEM 3.6 2.4 0.4
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.8 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.