NBA games

MIN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
114137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN26322828114
NY28264043137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home NY
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 38 32 5 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 21 3 4
Anthony Edwards S 29 15 2 5
Jaden McDaniels S 32 13 4 3
Mike Conley 18 8 0 6
Rudy Gobert S 28 7 9 0
Rob Dillingham 12 6 0 4
Naz Reid 21 5 6 1
Jaylen Clark 13 3 1 0
Leonard Miller 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 32 25 8 1
Jalen Brunson S 33 23 7 10
Josh Hart 27 18 5 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 15 10 4
Miles McBride 21 14 3 4
Mikal Bridges S 33 13 1 5
Mitchell Robinson S 16 8 10 1
Jordan Clarkson 16 7 0 0
Guerschon Yabusele 9 5 1 0
Ariel Hukporti 2 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
4 Julius Randle MIN
9%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
9 OG Anunoby NY
7%
10 Landry Shamet NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
45%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.6 4.1 5.5
2 Julius Randle MIN 24.4 6.6 5.2
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 21.0 4.1 2.8
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.0 10.1 3.0
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.9 5.1 4.3
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.2 5.3 2.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.3 4.5 2.0
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.4 3.5 3.3
9 Naz Reid MIN 10.9 4.5 1.5
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.7 9.0 1.6
11 Miles McBride NY 9.3 2.9 2.4
12 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.0 1.9 4.0
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.0 2.0 1.6
14 Josh Hart NY 7.2 5.5 3.0
15 Mike Conley MIN 6.8 2.5 3.7
16 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 6.7 2.8 1.9
17 Landry Shamet NY 6.4 2.0 0.9
18 Leonard Miller MIN 6.3 3.1 1.1
19 Johnny Juzang MIN 6.3 2.5 0.5
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.1 2.3 1.0
21 Tyler Kolek NY 5.0 1.3 1.6
22 Bones Hyland MIN 4.9 1.9 1.8
23 Joan Beringer MIN 4.8 3.7 0.6
24 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.3 2.8 0.7
25 Mitchell Robinson NY 3.9 7.9 0.7
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.5 1.9 0.7
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.4 3.5 0.8
28 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.9 1.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.