NBA games

WSH @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
107–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH37232027107
BOS26443234136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home BOS
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 29 31 8 2
Justin Champagnie S 19 12 6 0
Marvin Bagley III 13 11 5 2
Malaki Branham 17 10 3 0
Kyshawn George S 28 9 2 3
Corey Kispert 13 8 2 1
Tre Johnson 24 7 1 1
Tristan Vukcevic 6 5 1 1
Will Riley 12 4 2 1
Bub Carrington 31 3 5 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 26 35 5 5
Josh Minott S 34 21 5 0
Anfernee Simons 30 18 0 2
Payton Pritchard S 24 18 2 5
Neemias Queta S 24 15 12 5
Derrick White S 29 12 3 8
Jordan Walsh 24 7 7 1
Hugo Gonzalez 17 5 2 1
Sam Hauser 22 3 2 3
Luka Garza 7 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Alex Sarr makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Payton Pritchard BOS
11%
4 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 CJ McCollum WSH
8%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
10 Josh Minott BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
32%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.9 4.7 5.0
2 Alex Sarr WSH 18.4 9.2 3.5
3 Kyshawn George WSH 17.9 6.7 3.6
4 Derrick White BOS 17.4 4.8 5.0
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.0 4.3 5.6
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 15.2 6.1 3.6
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 14.9 3.1 2.3
8 CJ McCollum WSH 14.4 3.6 3.3
9 Tre Johnson WSH 10.2 4.0 1.7
10 Sam Hauser BOS 9.7 3.0 1.6
11 Josh Minott BOS 9.5 6.2 1.6
12 Neemias Queta BOS 9.1 8.2 1.4
13 Marvin Bagley III WSH 7.7 4.8 1.5
14 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.6 2.5 1.1
15 Corey Kispert WSH 7.5 2.8 1.8
16 Bub Carrington WSH 7.1 3.2 3.5
17 Luka Garza BOS 6.4 3.9 1.1
18 Chris Boucher BOS 5.9 3.7 0.9
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.2 2.7 1.1
20 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.6 1.8 0.9
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.4 2.8 1.3
22 Will Riley WSH 4.1 1.6 0.9
23 Malaki Branham WSH 4.0 1.3 0.6
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.0 2.9 1.1
25 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.4 2.6 0.5
26 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.9 1.2 0.6
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.6 0.5
28 AJ Johnson WSH 2.2 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.