NBA games

BKN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN25292632112
IND18412420103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home IND
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 35 32 11 3
Nic Claxton S 34 18 10 6
Noah Clowney S 30 17 4 1
Tyrese Martin 27 16 5 2
Terance Mann S 35 15 1 6
Jalen Wilson 21 6 1 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 5 7 3
Ziaire Williams 24 3 3 2
Egor Demin 13 0 3 2
Cam Thomas S 6 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 23 6 10
Ben Sheppard S 35 18 4 3
Jay Huff 18 16 2 0
Aaron Nesmith S 32 15 7 2
Isaiah Jackson S 20 8 7 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 24 8 15 2
Jarace Walker S 32 6 6 6
Tony Bradley 14 4 2 1
Taelon Peter 16 3 3 4
Cody Martin 8 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
12%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Isaiah Jackson IND
11%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
7 Terance Mann BKN
9%
8 Tyrese Martin BKN
8%
9 Jarace Walker IND
8%
10 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.6 6.7 5.6
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.3 2.9 3.8
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 21.1 7.0 3.2
4 Nic Claxton BKN 14.5 8.0 3.6
5 Jarace Walker IND 14.3 5.8 4.5
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.0 3.8 1.8
7 Terance Mann BKN 9.8 3.5 2.2
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.4 2.8 1.0
9 RayJ Dennis IND 8.9 2.5 3.9
10 Ben Sheppard IND 7.6 4.6 2.2
11 Egor Demin BKN 7.3 3.2 2.4
12 Noah Clowney BKN 6.9 3.4 1.3
13 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.8 5.3 1.8
14 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.7 2.9 1.8
15 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.4 5.0 1.1
16 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.8 1.5 0.9
17 Taelon Peter IND 5.7 2.3 1.8
18 Mac McClung IND 5.6 2.0 0.9
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 5.2 2.7 1.0
20 Jay Huff IND 5.2 2.9 1.1
21 Tony Bradley IND 4.4 3.6 0.7
22 E.J. Liddell BKN 2.9 2.0 0.5
23 Tyson Etienne BKN 1.7 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.