NBA games

UTAH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
103–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH30251434103
DET28252536114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DET
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Svi Mykhailiuk S 36 28 2 2
Lauri Markkanen S 40 25 4 0
Keyonte George S 35 19 2 6
Ace Bailey 19 9 4 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 6 17 4
Walter Clayton Jr. 15 6 0 6
Kyle Filipowski 20 4 4 2
Elijah Harkless 10 3 1 0
Kevin Love 14 3 3 3
Taylor Hendricks S 18 0 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 31 3 10
Jalen Duren S 35 22 22 3
Ausar Thompson S 31 18 7 4
Caris LeVert 19 10 2 1
Isaiah Stewart S 31 10 6 1
Duncan Robinson S 28 9 2 0
Ronald Holland II 28 9 6 4
Javonte Green 23 3 4 1
Paul Reed 7 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes 3-foot layup (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
13%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
4 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
5 Duncan Robinson DET
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
8%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
44%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
13%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.3 5.3 9.4
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 25.1 6.2 3.2
3 Keyonte George UTAH 22.3 4.3 6.6
4 Jalen Duren DET 16.8 10.4 1.9
5 Ausar Thompson DET 13.8 6.8 3.0
6 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.7 2.9 1.4
7 Duncan Robinson DET 10.6 3.1 1.6
8 Ronald Holland II DET 10.3 3.3 2.7
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.9 6.1 1.5
10 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 9.2 7.8 2.3
11 Ace Bailey UTAH 8.5 3.5 1.5
12 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 8.5 3.1 3.6
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.8 2.7 1.7
14 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 7.0 4.2 1.1
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.7 3.6 1.7
16 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.7 1.0 2.6
17 Kevin Love UTAH 6.2 4.2 2.1
18 Caris LeVert DET 6.0 1.5 1.7
19 Javonte Green DET 5.7 2.7 1.2
20 Paul Reed DET 5.2 4.0 1.1
21 Elijah Harkless UTAH 5.0 1.3 0.8
22 Cody Williams UTAH 4.9 1.6 0.8
23 Kyle Anderson UTAH 4.8 1.8 3.0
24 Chaz Lanier DET 4.2 0.9 0.8
25 Bobi Klintman DET 3.1 1.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.