NBA games

PHI @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
121–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27402034121
CLE41293725132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CLE
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 36 27 7 9
Quentin Grimes 32 27 3 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 19 3 2
Trendon Watford 23 16 3 6
Andre Drummond 28 13 13 1
Justin Edwards 16 8 3 1
VJ Edgecombe S 37 7 4 4
Adem Bona S 18 4 4 0
Johni Broome 1 0 0 0
Hunter Sallis 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 46 4 8
Jarrett Allen S 30 24 10 1
Evan Mobley S 34 23 5 3
Sam Merrill 27 14 0 0
Jaylon Tyson S 29 10 5 3
Darius Garland S 26 8 2 4
Larry Nance Jr. 15 7 5 1
Tyrese Proctor 1 0 0 0
Dean Wade 1 0 0 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylon Tyson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jaylon Tyson makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
5 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
7 Jabari Walker PHI
9%
8 Larry Nance Jr. CLE
8%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
8%
10 Jaylon Tyson CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
34%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 30.0 4.5 7.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.6 3.8 4.7
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 21.0 4.5 5.6
4 Evan Mobley CLE 20.6 8.1 4.3
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 19.7 5.6 5.0
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.3 5.9 1.9
7 Sam Merrill CLE 13.1 2.3 1.9
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.0 6.8 1.5
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.5 3.4 2.1
10 Dean Wade CLE 7.7 3.9 1.5
11 Trendon Watford PHI 7.3 3.9 3.0
12 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.3 3.5 4.8
13 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.2 3.6 1.9
14 Jabari Walker PHI 5.6 3.6 0.8
15 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.5 1.3 1.8
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.4 5.8 0.7
17 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 5.2 3.6 1.4
18 Johni Broome PHI 5.1 3.0 0.6
19 Justin Edwards PHI 4.9 2.5 1.4
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.5 4.8 0.6
21 Hunter Sallis PHI 4.4 1.6 1.0
22 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.3 1.6 0.5
23 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.9 1.8 0.7
24 Eric Gordon PHI 3.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.