NBA games

OKC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
126–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC23333832126
LAC33242921107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 30 4 12
Isaiah Joe 21 22 3 0
Aaron Wiggins 26 12 2 2
Cason Wallace S 25 12 3 1
Chet Holmgren S 30 11 5 3
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 10 7 3
Alex Caruso 24 8 1 3
Ajay Mitchell 20 8 4 3
Luguentz Dort S 15 6 3 0
Jaylin Williams 14 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 30 25 6 6
John Collins 25 17 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 16 4 2
Brook Lopez 16 12 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 30 11 6 4
Ivica Zubac S 26 7 7 2
Kris Dunn S 30 6 5 3
Cam Christie 7 5 2 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 7 5 2 0
Nicolas Batum S 18 3 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
12%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
3 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
32%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.0 4.8 6.2
2 James Harden LAC 20.7 4.9 8.6
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.9 8.8 2.3
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 19.7 3.8 3.7
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 12.5 9.0 2.4
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.8 3.9 2.7
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.1 8.9 3.1
8 John Collins LAC 10.9 4.7 1.2
9 Cason Wallace OKC 10.0 3.7 3.8
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.8 3.4 1.4
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.6 2.8 1.0
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.9 3.7 1.3
13 Brook Lopez LAC 7.3 3.4 0.7
14 Ousmane Dieng OKC 6.9 3.3 1.9
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.7 4.2 1.7
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.4 1.9 1.4
17 Kris Dunn LAC 6.0 2.5 1.4
18 Chris Youngblood OKC 5.4 1.6 0.9
19 Chris Paul LAC 5.3 2.2 4.0
20 Branden Carlson OKC 4.9 2.6 0.7
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.7 2.6 0.7
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.1 0.7 0.5
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 2.9 2.9 0.5
24 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 2.0 1.1 0.8
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.0 2.2 0.4
26 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 1.8 0.9 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.