NBA games

PHX @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
107–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX19303424107
GS33352426118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home GS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 38 3 4
Grayson Allen S 35 16 4 5
Mark Williams S 27 16 16 4
Ryan Dunn S 31 10 2 1
Royce O'Neale S 28 8 6 3
Collin Gillespie 21 8 5 4
Jordan Goodwin 24 5 3 1
Nick Richards 4 2 0 1
Oso Ighodaro 20 2 5 1
Isaiah Livers 7 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 28 4 3
Moses Moody 34 24 5 2
Quinten Post S 27 14 7 3
Brandin Podziemski 24 13 2 4
Buddy Hield 20 12 2 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 25 9 5 2
Pat Spencer 11 7 3 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 16 7 2 3
Draymond Green S 33 2 5 8
Jimmy Butler III S 14 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
13%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
10%
6 Ryan Dunn PHX
10%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
49%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.2 4.2 7.0
2 Stephen Curry GS 24.3 4.4 5.0
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.9 5.3 4.8
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.9 6.1 3.8
5 Grayson Allen PHX 16.3 3.8 4.2
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.9 4.1 3.3
7 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.8 4.6 3.5
8 Mark Williams PHX 11.3 8.9 1.0
9 Collin Gillespie PHX 11.2 3.8 4.3
10 Draymond Green GS 10.3 4.8 5.0
11 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.6 5.7 1.7
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.3 2.7 2.0
13 Moses Moody GS 7.6 2.5 1.3
14 Buddy Hield GS 6.8 2.3 1.6
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.7 3.8 1.5
16 Will Richard GS 6.4 2.1 1.4
17 Khaman Maluach PHX 5.3 2.8 0.7
18 Quinten Post GS 5.2 3.3 1.0
19 Nick Richards PHX 5.0 3.5 0.7
20 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 4.4 2.1 0.9
21 Pat Spencer GS 4.3 1.5 1.4
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.0 2.2 0.7
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.9 3.5 0.9
24 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.5 1.9 0.6
25 Gui Santos GS 3.4 1.7 1.0
26 Isaiah Livers PHX 3.2 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.