NBA games

CHA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
112–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30293419112
NO33282629116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NO
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 22 8 3
Kon Knueppel S 32 20 12 2
Tre Mann 24 18 2 2
Collin Sexton S 30 17 0 5
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 30 10 11 2
KJ Simpson 13 8 3 0
Sion James S 31 6 5 2
Moussa Diabate 18 6 5 2
Pat Connaughton 11 3 1 1
Liam McNeeley 13 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 37 21 3 3
Jose Alvarado 31 18 3 6
Saddiq Bey 27 17 4 0
Karlo Matkovic 15 13 6 2
Derik Queen 18 12 8 7
Jordan Poole S 27 11 2 6
Herbert Jones S 36 11 5 1
Jeremiah Fears S 17 11 3 0
Jordan Hawkins 17 2 1 0
Kevon Looney S 15 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Fears · Layup (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Jeremiah Fears makes two point shot (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jeremiah Fears NO
15%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
14%
3 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
14%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
14%
5 Collin Sexton CHA
12%
6 Herbert Jones NO
12%
7 Sion James CHA
10%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
9 Jordan Poole NO
0%
10 Moussa Diabate CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 22.8 6.7 3.5
2 Collin Sexton CHA 18.3 3.2 6.3
3 Jordan Poole NO 17.6 2.5 3.7
4 Trey Murphy III NO 15.7 5.4 3.0
5 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.3 3.5 4.1
6 Kon Knueppel CHA 14.3 4.4 2.8
7 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.6 7.5 0.9
8 Herbert Jones NO 10.3 3.4 2.1
9 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.2 7.1 1.2
10 Saddiq Bey NO 9.6 3.5 1.7
11 Tre Mann CHA 9.2 3.0 2.6
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.4 2.0 1.0
13 Sion James CHA 7.1 2.8 1.5
14 Derik Queen NO 6.9 4.8 0.9
15 KJ Simpson CHA 5.5 1.7 1.8
16 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.4 2.0 1.6
17 Micah Peavy NO 5.1 2.1 1.2
18 Jose Alvarado NO 4.9 1.9 1.7
19 Kevon Looney NO 4.3 2.7 1.6
20 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.7 1.3 0.7
21 Karlo Matkovic NO 3.6 2.1 0.7
22 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.6 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.