NBA games

PHI @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
111113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI45302016111
CHI27292829113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHI
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 39 5 5
Joel Embiid S 26 20 6 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 33 18 3 2
VJ Edgecombe S 38 12 11 4
Quentin Grimes 30 10 3 4
Trendon Watford 19 8 4 2
Jabari Walker S 19 2 3 1
Adem Bona 22 2 4 0
Jared McCain 15 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 37 29 15 12
Nikola Vucevic S 31 19 10 0
Isaac Okoro S 33 16 2 5
Jalen Smith 17 14 4 0
Kevin Huerter 25 12 5 2
Matas Buzelis S 30 10 5 1
Tre Jones S 27 8 4 2
Patrick Williams 21 3 2 2
Dalen Terry 14 2 1 2
Julian Phillips 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
8 Adem Bona PHI
8%
9 Jabari Walker PHI
8%
10 Tre Jones CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
18%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.9 4.4 6.9
2 Josh Giddey CHI 22.9 8.8 7.8
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 20.7 4.9 5.1
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 20.5 4.5 5.7
5 Joel Embiid PHI 18.7 5.7 4.9
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.7 10.5 3.6
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.5 4.5 1.5
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.1 3.6 2.5
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.5 5.7 1.9
10 Tre Jones CHI 12.7 3.7 5.5
11 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.5 4.2 2.7
12 Patrick Williams CHI 9.6 3.3 2.6
13 Jevon Carter CHI 8.7 1.9 1.7
14 Jalen Smith CHI 7.6 4.4 1.0
15 Trendon Watford PHI 7.1 3.9 3.3
16 Isaac Okoro CHI 6.9 2.6 1.5
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.8 5.7 0.8
18 Jabari Walker PHI 5.7 3.6 0.8
19 Johni Broome PHI 5.3 3.0 0.6
20 Justin Edwards PHI 5.0 2.5 1.5
21 Adem Bona PHI 4.4 3.7 0.7
22 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.5 0.5
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.8 2.4 1.6
24 Eric Gordon PHI 3.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.